Game · 2019-20 Finals
6/16 Game 1
Hinata Aiko finished 1st (+65.6pt). The game was decided in East 4: Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,000, which moved Hinata Aiko's expected points by +34.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 1,100 | 27% | 25% | 24% | 24% | -6.3 | -1.7 | +7.0 | +1.0 |
| East 2 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 4,000 | 22% | 25% | 29% | 25% | -2.7 | -8.2 | -1.8 | +12.6 |
| East 3 | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 2,700 | 19% | 18% | 27% | 35% | -2.5 | +10.8 | -5.5 | -2.8 |
| East 4 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 27% | 23% | 32% | -10.0 | -12.7 | -11.9 | +34.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 2,900 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 10% | 13% | 12% | 65% | +2.6 | -0.5 | -8.7 | +6.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 10% | 7% | 73% | +25.7 | -7.5 | -6.1 | -12.1 |
| South 1 | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 8% | 6% | 60% | -23.0 | +37.1 | -8.3 | -5.9 |
| South 2 | Draw | 8% | 32% | 6% | 53% | +3.7 | +2.3 | -2.5 | -3.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 5,200 | 11% | 35% | 5% | 49% | -6.3 | -13.4 | -5.5 | +25.1 |
| South 3 | Draw | 3% | 11% | 3% | 84% | -0.9 | -2.1 | +3.5 | -0.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 11% | 3% | 83% | -5.4 | +28.8 | -11.9 | -11.5 |
| South 4 | Hinata Aiko ron 2,900 from Mizuhara Akina | 0% | 42% | 0% | 58% | -4.0 | -8.9 | +1.1 | +11.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 19% | 0% | 81% | -0.8 | -5.2 | -1.4 | +7.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Draw | 0% | 9% | 0% | 91% | +0.6 | -2.6 | -1.1 | +3.1 |