Game · 2019-20 Final Series
6/16 Game 1
Aiko Hinata finished 1st (+65.6pt). The game was decided in East 4: Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000, which moved Aiko Hinata's expected points by +33.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 1,100 | 27% | 25% | 24% | 24% | -7.8 | -1.5 | +6.3 | +3.0 |
| East 2 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 4,000 | 21% | 24% | 28% | 27% | -1.3 | -6.8 | -2.4 | +10.5 |
| East 3 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 2,700 | 20% | 20% | 27% | 34% | -1.9 | +7.9 | -5.0 | -1.0 |
| East 4 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 24% | 22% | 35% | -10.0 | -10.0 | -13.2 | +33.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 2,900 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 10% | 14% | 11% | 66% | +0.9 | -1.0 | -5.9 | +6.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 11% | 8% | 72% | +26.4 | -8.0 | -7.4 | -11.0 |
| South 1 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 10% | 7% | 61% | -20.6 | +36.2 | -8.0 | -7.6 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 32% | 5% | 52% | +1.5 | +3.2 | -1.5 | -3.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 5,200 | 11% | 37% | 5% | 47% | -6.0 | -14.7 | -6.9 | +27.6 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 10% | 2% | 85% | -1.3 | -0.4 | +5.0 | -3.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 12% | 4% | 81% | -4.2 | +28.6 | -12.9 | -11.5 |
| South 4 | Aiko Hinata ron 2,900 from Akina Mizuhara | 1% | 43% | 0% | 56% | -4.7 | -10.0 | +1.2 | +13.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 19% | 0% | 81% | -0.8 | -5.2 | -1.1 | +7.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 9% | 0% | 91% | +0.4 | -2.2 | -1.3 | +3.1 |