From the 2026-27 results up to 9/25 Table B Game 2, we simulated the rest of the season 20,000 times. The title chances run from 17% for U-NEXT Pirates to 6% for TEAM RAIDEN: hardly any difference yet. In the final Regular Season standings, even U-NEXT Pirates, with the best average place, finishes 1st only 19% of the time; any place is possible.
Regular Season: 24 / 300 games played. The top 6 teams go to the Semifinals and the top 4 of those to the Finals, each carrying half their points.
Final Regular Season standingsChance of each place (left of the thick line: into the Semifinals)
Team
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
#10
Average place
U-NEXT Pirates
19.2%
15.3%
13.3%
11.2%
10.1%
8.5%
7.4%
6.2%
5.0%
3.8%
4.2
Shibuya ABEMAS
18.3%
14.7%
12.6%
11.3%
9.8%
9.0%
8.0%
6.6%
5.6%
4.1%
4.3
KADOKAWA Sakura Knights
14.1%
13.1%
11.9%
11.2%
10.3%
9.7%
8.7%
8.3%
6.8%
5.9%
4.8
EX Furinkazan
9.4%
9.6%
10.2%
10.5%
10.5%
10.9%
10.4%
9.9%
9.8%
8.9%
5.5
BEAST X
7.7%
8.7%
9.4%
10.1%
10.7%
10.2%
10.6%
10.8%
10.9%
11.0%
5.8
Akasaka Drivens
7.2%
8.7%
8.8%
10.0%
10.1%
10.8%
10.7%
10.9%
11.3%
11.5%
5.9
KONAMI Mahjong Fight Club
6.9%
8.3%
9.3%
9.1%
9.8%
10.2%
10.6%
11.2%
11.9%
12.7%
6.0
SEGA SAMMY Phoenix
6.2%
7.7%
8.4%
9.3%
9.4%
10.3%
11.1%
11.9%
12.6%
13.0%
6.1
TEAM RAIDEN
5.7%
7.3%
8.1%
8.6%
9.7%
10.4%
11.6%
11.8%
12.7%
14.0%
6.2
EARTH JETS
5.3%
6.6%
8.0%
8.7%
9.4%
10.0%
11.0%
12.4%
13.4%
15.1%
6.3
Sorted by average place. The darker a cell, the likelier that place; the filled cell is each team's likeliest place.
These chances rest on little data so far
Only 24 games of this season (8% of 300) have been played.The chances being nearly level is not a mistake: from the results so far, there is almost no telling which teams will go through.
Skill differences between teams are estimated to be very small next to luck.The skill gap estimated from the players' past results is a standard deviation of about 0.7pt per game.Added up over the roughly 110 games each team has left, skill makes a difference of about ±78pt, far short of luck (about ±472pt).The skill estimates themselves rest on only tens to hundreds of games per player and are wide (Methodology 2.5 (Japanese)).
The error shown is only the noise from the number of simulations.The noise from 20,000 runs is at most ±0.4 percentage points, but it leaves out errors in the skill estimates and who will play how many games. The real uncertainty is larger than the digits suggest.
Whether these chances were right in past seasons has not been checked.With only one champion per season, 8 seasons are not enough to test how well the chances do (Are these numbers right? (Japanese)).
Past chances are recalculated from the results up to that day only.
When a clinch or elimination becomes possibleRegular Season, from the theoretical best and worst
For now, no team can yet clinch or be eliminated from the Semifinals or Regular Season 1st.The soonest it can happen is after each team plays 55 more games, around 11/27.Until then, see the standings odds above.
Methodology
The remaining games are filled with results drawn at random from past M.League games (points by placement).Each team's strength is the average of its players' skill estimates, which shifts its points per game slightly.As one season's results are mostly luck, skill differences carry little weight.For details, see the methodology (Japanese) (in Japanese).