2026-27 season · 132 / 300 games played
Standings odds From the 2026-27 results up to 11/12 Table B Game 2,
Regular Season: 132 / 300 games played. The top 6 teams go to the Semifinal Series and the top 4 of those to the Final Series, each carrying half their points.
Final Regular Season standingsChance of each place (left of the thick line: into the Semifinal Series) Share this table on X Team #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 Average place KADOKAWA Sakura Knights 66.3% 17.7% 7.8% 4.1% 2.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.7 Akasaka Drivens 8.2% 17.8% 16.7% 14.4% 12.2% 10.0% 7.9% 6.0% 4.2% 2.4% 4.4 KONAMI MAH-JONG FIGHT CLUB 7.9% 17.8% 16.2% 14.8% 12.3% 10.0% 8.3% 6.3% 4.1% 2.4% 4.4 TEAM RAIDEN 6.7% 14.9% 15.1% 13.7% 12.1% 11.3% 9.5% 7.7% 5.7% 3.3% 4.8 SEGA SAMMY Phoenix 4.5% 10.7% 12.7% 12.8% 12.9% 12.3% 11.1% 9.9% 7.9% 5.1% 5.3 U-NEXT Pirates 2.2% 7.3% 9.9% 11.7% 12.6% 12.6% 12.5% 11.7% 10.9% 8.7% 6.0 BEAST X 1.5% 4.5% 6.4% 8.4% 10.2% 11.6% 12.8% 14.3% 15.6% 14.7% 6.8 EARTH JETS 1.1% 4.0% 6.0% 7.8% 9.7% 11.2% 12.8% 14.6% 16.0% 16.7% 6.9 Shibuya ABEMAS 1.1% 3.3% 5.7% 7.3% 9.1% 11.2% 12.8% 14.3% 17.0% 18.3% 7.1 EX Furinkazan 0.4% 1.9% 3.4% 5.2% 6.9% 8.8% 11.8% 14.7% 18.6% 28.3% 7.7
Sorted by average place. The darker a cell, the likelier that place; the filled cell is each team's likeliest place.
These chances rest on little data so far Only 132 games of this season (44% of 300) have been played. The nearly equal chances are not an error: results so far offer little evidence about which teams will advance.Skill differences between teams are estimated to be very small next to luck. The skill gap estimated from the players' past results is a standard deviation of about 1.2pt per game.Added up over the roughly 67 games each team has left, skill makes a difference of about ±78pt, far short of luck (about ±368pt).The skill estimates themselves rest on only tens to hundreds of games per player and are wide (Methodology 2.5 (Japanese) ).The displayed error reflects simulation noise only. The noise from 20,000 runs is at most ±0.4 percentage points, but it leaves out errors in the skill estimates and who will play how many games. The real uncertainty is larger than the digits suggest.Whether these chances were right in past seasons has not been checked. With only one champion per season, 8 seasons are not enough to test how well the chances do (Are these numbers right? (Japanese) ).Chances by team Team Now Semifinal Series Final Series Title
KADOKAWA Sakura Knights #1 Semifinal Series 99% ▲2 Final Series 90% ▲7 Title 34% ▲6
Akasaka Drivens #4 Semifinal Series 79% ▲1 Final Series 57% ― Title 15% ▼1
KONAMI MAH-JONG FIGHT CLUB #3 Semifinal Series 79% ▲2 Final Series 53% ― Title 11% ▼1
SEGA SAMMY Phoenix #5 Semifinal Series 66% ▲6 Final Series 43% ▲4 Title 10% ―
U-NEXT Pirates #8 Semifinal Series 56% ▲4 Final Series 36% ▲3 Title 9% ―
TEAM RAIDEN #2 Semifinal Series 74% ▲1 Final Series 45% ▼1 Title 9% ―
Shibuya ABEMAS #9 Semifinal Series 38% ▼5 Final Series 20% ▼4 Title 4% ▼1
EARTH JETS #7 Semifinal Series 40% ▼4 Final Series 21% ▼4 Title 4% ▼1
BEAST X #6 Semifinal Series 43% ▲1 Final Series 22% ― Title 3% ―
EX Furinkazan #10 Semifinal Series 27% ▼7 Final Series 14% ▼5 Title 3% ▼1
▲▼: change since the last match day (11/10), in percentage points. "Now": the current Regular Season place (points from the official M.League site ).
Chances over timeat the end of each match day, by team Semifinal Series Final Series Title
KADOKAWA Sakura Knights 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 61% 09-14: 60% 09-15: 60% 09-17: 60% 09-18: 64% 09-21: 58% 09-22: 61% 09-24: 61% 09-25: 72% 09-28: 76% 09-29: 75% 10-01: 84% 10-02: 84% 10-05: 85% 10-06: 89% 10-08: 88% 10-09: 88% 10-12: 85% 10-13: 80% 10-15: 80% 10-16: 85% 10-19: 82% 10-20: 82% 10-22: 87% 10-23: 88% 10-26: 90% 10-27: 91% 10-29: 88% 10-30: 88% 11-02: 87% 11-03: 93% 11-05: 89% 11-06: 88% 11-09: 92% 11-10: 97% 11-12: 99% 99% 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 41% 09-14: 40% 09-15: 39% 09-17: 40% 09-18: 43% 09-21: 38% 09-22: 41% 09-24: 42% 09-25: 50% 09-28: 54% 09-29: 53% 10-01: 65% 10-02: 66% 10-05: 65% 10-06: 71% 10-08: 69% 10-09: 68% 10-12: 64% 10-13: 59% 10-15: 59% 10-16: 64% 10-19: 61% 10-20: 61% 10-22: 67% 10-23: 68% 10-26: 70% 10-27: 72% 10-29: 68% 10-30: 69% 11-02: 67% 11-03: 76% 11-05: 69% 11-06: 69% 11-09: 73% 11-10: 83% 11-12: 90% 90% 0 20 40 before the season 11-12 before the season: 10% 09-14: 10% 09-15: 10% 09-17: 10% 09-18: 11% 09-21: 10% 09-22: 10% 09-24: 11% 09-25: 13% 09-28: 14% 09-29: 14% 10-01: 18% 10-02: 20% 10-05: 19% 10-06: 22% 10-08: 20% 10-09: 20% 10-12: 18% 10-13: 17% 10-15: 17% 10-16: 18% 10-19: 16% 10-20: 16% 10-22: 20% 10-23: 19% 10-26: 21% 10-27: 22% 10-29: 20% 10-30: 20% 11-02: 19% 11-03: 23% 11-05: 21% 11-06: 21% 11-09: 23% 11-10: 28% 11-12: 34% 34% Akasaka Drivens 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 63% 09-14: 63% 09-15: 57% 09-17: 55% 09-18: 55% 09-21: 59% 09-22: 58% 09-24: 55% 09-25: 52% 09-28: 51% 09-29: 63% 10-01: 69% 10-02: 69% 10-05: 72% 10-06: 76% 10-08: 75% 10-09: 75% 10-12: 67% 10-13: 66% 10-15: 68% 10-16: 68% 10-19: 59% 10-20: 57% 10-22: 57% 10-23: 61% 10-26: 70% 10-27: 69% 10-29: 71% 10-30: 70% 11-02: 63% 11-03: 63% 11-05: 66% 11-06: 77% 11-09: 72% 11-10: 78% 11-12: 79% 79% 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 42% 09-14: 42% 09-15: 38% 09-17: 35% 09-18: 36% 09-21: 39% 09-22: 38% 09-24: 36% 09-25: 34% 09-28: 33% 09-29: 42% 10-01: 48% 10-02: 47% 10-05: 50% 10-06: 53% 10-08: 53% 10-09: 54% 10-12: 45% 10-13: 45% 10-15: 46% 10-16: 46% 10-19: 39% 10-20: 37% 10-22: 36% 10-23: 40% 10-26: 47% 10-27: 45% 10-29: 49% 10-30: 49% 11-02: 41% 11-03: 43% 11-05: 46% 11-06: 56% 11-09: 51% 11-10: 57% 11-12: 57% 57% 0 20 40 before the season 11-12 before the season: 12% 09-14: 11% 09-15: 10% 09-17: 9% 09-18: 9% 09-21: 10% 09-22: 10% 09-24: 9% 09-25: 8% 09-28: 8% 09-29: 11% 10-01: 14% 10-02: 13% 10-05: 13% 10-06: 13% 10-08: 14% 10-09: 15% 10-12: 12% 10-13: 11% 10-15: 12% 10-16: 12% 10-19: 10% 10-20: 9% 10-22: 9% 10-23: 10% 10-26: 12% 10-27: 11% 10-29: 13% 10-30: 13% 11-02: 10% 11-03: 11% 11-05: 12% 11-06: 16% 11-09: 14% 11-10: 15% 11-12: 15% 15% KONAMI MAH-JONG FIGHT CLUB 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 58% 09-14: 56% 09-15: 57% 09-17: 55% 09-18: 49% 09-21: 47% 09-22: 55% 09-24: 55% 09-25: 55% 09-28: 63% 09-29: 61% 10-01: 63% 10-02: 68% 10-05: 74% 10-06: 78% 10-08: 79% 10-09: 78% 10-12: 83% 10-13: 76% 10-15: 76% 10-16: 76% 10-19: 83% 10-20: 83% 10-22: 83% 10-23: 84% 10-26: 85% 10-27: 82% 10-29: 82% 10-30: 79% 11-02: 79% 11-03: 72% 11-05: 77% 11-06: 72% 11-09: 82% 11-10: 77% 11-12: 79% 79% 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 38% 09-14: 36% 09-15: 36% 09-17: 36% 09-18: 31% 09-21: 29% 09-22: 36% 09-24: 35% 09-25: 35% 09-28: 42% 09-29: 41% 10-01: 42% 10-02: 47% 10-05: 53% 10-06: 55% 10-08: 55% 10-09: 56% 10-12: 62% 10-13: 54% 10-15: 53% 10-16: 54% 10-19: 61% 10-20: 64% 10-22: 60% 10-23: 63% 10-26: 63% 10-27: 60% 10-29: 59% 10-30: 56% 11-02: 56% 11-03: 49% 11-05: 54% 11-06: 49% 11-09: 59% 11-10: 53% 11-12: 53% 53% 0 20 40 before the season 11-12 before the season: 9% 09-14: 9% 09-15: 9% 09-17: 9% 09-18: 7% 09-21: 7% 09-22: 9% 09-24: 8% 09-25: 9% 09-28: 10% 09-29: 10% 10-01: 10% 10-02: 12% 10-05: 14% 10-06: 15% 10-08: 14% 10-09: 15% 10-12: 17% 10-13: 14% 10-15: 14% 10-16: 15% 10-19: 17% 10-20: 18% 10-22: 16% 10-23: 17% 10-26: 17% 10-27: 16% 10-29: 16% 10-30: 14% 11-02: 15% 11-03: 12% 11-05: 13% 11-06: 11% 11-09: 15% 11-10: 12% 11-12: 11% 11% TEAM RAIDEN 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 55% 09-14: 56% 09-15: 56% 09-17: 57% 09-18: 59% 09-21: 65% 09-22: 57% 09-24: 59% 09-25: 54% 09-28: 55% 09-29: 55% 10-01: 47% 10-02: 50% 10-05: 51% 10-06: 50% 10-08: 49% 10-09: 49% 10-12: 53% 10-13: 45% 10-15: 45% 10-16: 59% 10-19: 59% 10-20: 62% 10-22: 62% 10-23: 67% 10-26: 60% 10-27: 61% 10-29: 55% 10-30: 59% 11-02: 62% 11-03: 62% 11-05: 68% 11-06: 68% 11-09: 66% 11-10: 73% 11-12: 74% 74% 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 35% 09-14: 36% 09-15: 36% 09-17: 36% 09-18: 38% 09-21: 43% 09-22: 37% 09-24: 37% 09-25: 35% 09-28: 34% 09-29: 34% 10-01: 28% 10-02: 30% 10-05: 31% 10-06: 30% 10-08: 29% 10-09: 29% 10-12: 32% 10-13: 26% 10-15: 26% 10-16: 37% 10-19: 37% 10-20: 39% 10-22: 40% 10-23: 43% 10-26: 37% 10-27: 39% 10-29: 33% 10-30: 36% 11-02: 39% 11-03: 38% 11-05: 43% 11-06: 44% 11-09: 41% 11-10: 46% 11-12: 45% 45% 0 20 40 before the season 11-12 before the season: 8% 09-14: 9% 09-15: 9% 09-17: 9% 09-18: 9% 09-21: 10% 09-22: 9% 09-24: 8% 09-25: 8% 09-28: 8% 09-29: 8% 10-01: 6% 10-02: 6% 10-05: 7% 10-06: 6% 10-08: 6% 10-09: 6% 10-12: 7% 10-13: 6% 10-15: 6% 10-16: 8% 10-19: 9% 10-20: 10% 10-22: 8% 10-23: 11% 10-26: 8% 10-27: 9% 10-29: 7% 10-30: 8% 11-02: 9% 11-03: 7% 11-05: 9% 11-06: 9% 11-09: 9% 11-10: 9% 11-12: 9% 9% SEGA SAMMY Phoenix 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 61% 09-14: 60% 09-15: 67% 09-17: 67% 09-18: 67% 09-21: 66% 09-22: 58% 09-24: 50% 09-25: 50% 09-28: 52% 09-29: 51% 10-01: 47% 10-02: 49% 10-05: 49% 10-06: 45% 10-08: 45% 10-09: 44% 10-12: 40% 10-13: 49% 10-15: 50% 10-16: 55% 10-19: 55% 10-20: 53% 10-22: 63% 10-23: 57% 10-26: 57% 10-27: 59% 10-29: 59% 10-30: 60% 11-02: 58% 11-03: 68% 11-05: 58% 11-06: 47% 11-09: 58% 11-10: 60% 11-12: 66% 66% 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 41% 09-14: 41% 09-15: 47% 09-17: 46% 09-18: 46% 09-21: 45% 09-22: 38% 09-24: 32% 09-25: 32% 09-28: 33% 09-29: 32% 10-01: 28% 10-02: 30% 10-05: 29% 10-06: 27% 10-08: 26% 10-09: 26% 10-12: 23% 10-13: 30% 10-15: 31% 10-16: 35% 10-19: 36% 10-20: 32% 10-22: 41% 10-23: 35% 10-26: 36% 10-27: 37% 10-29: 39% 10-30: 39% 11-02: 37% 11-03: 46% 11-05: 38% 11-06: 29% 11-09: 37% 11-10: 39% 11-12: 43% 43% 0 20 40 before the season 11-12 before the season: 10% 09-14: 10% 09-15: 12% 09-17: 11% 09-18: 11% 09-21: 11% 09-22: 9% 09-24: 8% 09-25: 8% 09-28: 8% 09-29: 8% 10-01: 6% 10-02: 7% 10-05: 7% 10-06: 6% 10-08: 6% 10-09: 6% 10-12: 5% 10-13: 7% 10-15: 7% 10-16: 8% 10-19: 8% 10-20: 8% 10-22: 10% 10-23: 8% 10-26: 9% 10-27: 9% 10-29: 10% 10-30: 9% 11-02: 9% 11-03: 12% 11-05: 9% 11-06: 7% 11-09: 9% 11-10: 9% 11-12: 10% 10% U-NEXT Pirates 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 65% 09-14: 69% 09-15: 69% 09-17: 68% 09-18: 66% 09-21: 67% 09-22: 65% 09-24: 65% 09-25: 72% 09-28: 73% 09-29: 66% 10-01: 58% 10-02: 60% 10-05: 62% 10-06: 57% 10-08: 52% 10-09: 56% 10-12: 56% 10-13: 55% 10-15: 61% 10-16: 56% 10-19: 59% 10-20: 60% 10-22: 66% 10-23: 67% 10-26: 71% 10-27: 71% 10-29: 66% 10-30: 68% 11-02: 64% 11-03: 67% 11-05: 67% 11-06: 69% 11-09: 58% 11-10: 52% 11-12: 56% 56% 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 46% 09-14: 48% 09-15: 49% 09-17: 48% 09-18: 47% 09-21: 48% 09-22: 45% 09-24: 45% 09-25: 52% 09-28: 52% 09-29: 45% 10-01: 38% 10-02: 40% 10-05: 40% 10-06: 36% 10-08: 33% 10-09: 36% 10-12: 36% 10-13: 36% 10-15: 39% 10-16: 37% 10-19: 39% 10-20: 39% 10-22: 44% 10-23: 44% 10-26: 49% 10-27: 48% 10-29: 45% 10-30: 46% 11-02: 42% 11-03: 48% 11-05: 48% 11-06: 49% 11-09: 39% 11-10: 33% 11-12: 36% 36% 0 20 40 before the season 11-12 before the season: 13% 09-14: 13% 09-15: 13% 09-17: 14% 09-18: 12% 09-21: 14% 09-22: 12% 09-24: 12% 09-25: 14% 09-28: 14% 09-29: 12% 10-01: 10% 10-02: 10% 10-05: 11% 10-06: 9% 10-08: 8% 10-09: 9% 10-12: 9% 10-13: 9% 10-15: 10% 10-16: 9% 10-19: 10% 10-20: 9% 10-22: 11% 10-23: 12% 10-26: 12% 10-27: 12% 10-29: 11% 10-30: 12% 11-02: 11% 11-03: 14% 11-05: 14% 11-06: 13% 11-09: 10% 11-10: 9% 11-12: 9% 9% BEAST X 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 57% 09-14: 58% 09-15: 58% 09-17: 56% 09-18: 56% 09-21: 51% 09-22: 55% 09-24: 64% 09-25: 62% 09-28: 58% 09-29: 62% 10-01: 63% 10-02: 60% 10-05: 53% 10-06: 54% 10-08: 47% 10-09: 56% 10-12: 66% 10-13: 74% 10-15: 67% 10-16: 60% 10-19: 61% 10-20: 66% 10-22: 64% 10-23: 64% 10-26: 58% 10-27: 55% 10-29: 54% 10-30: 63% 11-02: 70% 11-03: 61% 11-05: 59% 11-06: 57% 11-09: 51% 11-10: 41% 11-12: 43% 43% 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 37% 09-14: 38% 09-15: 37% 09-17: 35% 09-18: 36% 09-21: 32% 09-22: 35% 09-24: 43% 09-25: 39% 09-28: 37% 09-29: 42% 10-01: 41% 10-02: 38% 10-05: 33% 10-06: 32% 10-08: 28% 10-09: 34% 10-12: 43% 10-13: 50% 10-15: 46% 10-16: 39% 10-19: 39% 10-20: 43% 10-22: 42% 10-23: 42% 10-26: 35% 10-27: 34% 10-29: 33% 10-30: 41% 11-02: 46% 11-03: 36% 11-05: 35% 11-06: 34% 11-09: 29% 11-10: 22% 11-12: 22% 22% 0 20 40 before the season 11-12 before the season: 9% 09-14: 9% 09-15: 8% 09-17: 8% 09-18: 8% 09-21: 7% 09-22: 9% 09-24: 10% 09-25: 9% 09-28: 8% 09-29: 10% 10-01: 9% 10-02: 8% 10-05: 7% 10-06: 7% 10-08: 6% 10-09: 7% 10-12: 10% 10-13: 12% 10-15: 11% 10-16: 9% 10-19: 9% 10-20: 10% 10-22: 10% 10-23: 10% 10-26: 8% 10-27: 8% 10-29: 7% 10-30: 9% 11-02: 12% 11-03: 7% 11-05: 7% 11-06: 7% 11-09: 5% 11-10: 4% 11-12: 3% 3% EARTH JETS 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 59% 09-14: 58% 09-15: 60% 09-17: 65% 09-18: 65% 09-21: 61% 09-22: 59% 09-24: 53% 09-25: 50% 09-28: 44% 09-29: 44% 10-01: 41% 10-02: 37% 10-05: 31% 10-06: 27% 10-08: 27% 10-09: 27% 10-12: 26% 10-13: 27% 10-15: 24% 10-16: 21% 10-19: 25% 10-20: 27% 10-22: 26% 10-23: 25% 10-26: 26% 10-27: 35% 10-29: 42% 10-30: 38% 11-02: 39% 11-03: 35% 11-05: 34% 11-06: 38% 11-09: 39% 11-10: 44% 11-12: 40% 40% 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 38% 09-14: 39% 09-15: 39% 09-17: 45% 09-18: 43% 09-21: 40% 09-22: 39% 09-24: 34% 09-25: 31% 09-28: 26% 09-29: 27% 10-01: 24% 10-02: 21% 10-05: 17% 10-06: 15% 10-08: 15% 10-09: 14% 10-12: 14% 10-13: 15% 10-15: 12% 10-16: 11% 10-19: 14% 10-20: 15% 10-22: 14% 10-23: 13% 10-26: 14% 10-27: 19% 10-29: 25% 10-30: 22% 11-02: 23% 11-03: 19% 11-05: 18% 11-06: 22% 11-09: 22% 11-10: 25% 11-12: 21% 21% 0 20 40 before the season 11-12 before the season: 9% 09-14: 10% 09-15: 9% 09-17: 11% 09-18: 11% 09-21: 10% 09-22: 10% 09-24: 8% 09-25: 7% 09-28: 6% 09-29: 6% 10-01: 6% 10-02: 4% 10-05: 4% 10-06: 3% 10-08: 3% 10-09: 3% 10-12: 3% 10-13: 3% 10-15: 3% 10-16: 2% 10-19: 3% 10-20: 3% 10-22: 3% 10-23: 2% 10-26: 3% 10-27: 4% 10-29: 5% 10-30: 5% 11-02: 5% 11-03: 4% 11-05: 4% 11-06: 4% 11-09: 4% 11-10: 5% 11-12: 4% 4% Shibuya ABEMAS 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 62% 09-14: 58% 09-15: 58% 09-17: 58% 09-18: 59% 09-21: 65% 09-22: 71% 09-24: 75% 09-25: 75% 09-28: 74% 09-29: 66% 10-01: 68% 10-02: 63% 10-05: 71% 10-06: 72% 10-08: 74% 10-09: 72% 10-12: 68% 10-13: 72% 10-15: 72% 10-16: 64% 10-19: 58% 10-20: 57% 10-22: 47% 10-23: 37% 10-26: 39% 10-27: 39% 10-29: 45% 10-30: 43% 11-02: 47% 11-03: 47% 11-05: 46% 11-06: 46% 11-09: 48% 11-10: 43% 11-12: 38% 38% 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 42% 09-14: 38% 09-15: 39% 09-17: 38% 09-18: 40% 09-21: 44% 09-22: 48% 09-24: 55% 09-25: 52% 09-28: 52% 09-29: 45% 10-01: 46% 10-02: 44% 10-05: 49% 10-06: 48% 10-08: 52% 10-09: 49% 10-12: 46% 10-13: 50% 10-15: 50% 10-16: 42% 10-19: 37% 10-20: 37% 10-22: 27% 10-23: 21% 10-26: 22% 10-27: 23% 10-29: 27% 10-30: 25% 11-02: 28% 11-03: 28% 11-05: 28% 11-06: 28% 11-09: 29% 11-10: 25% 11-12: 20% 20% 0 20 40 before the season 11-12 before the season: 11% 09-14: 9% 09-15: 10% 09-17: 9% 09-18: 10% 09-21: 11% 09-22: 13% 09-24: 15% 09-25: 13% 09-28: 14% 09-29: 11% 10-01: 12% 10-02: 10% 10-05: 11% 10-06: 12% 10-08: 14% 10-09: 12% 10-12: 12% 10-13: 13% 10-15: 13% 10-16: 11% 10-19: 8% 10-20: 8% 10-22: 6% 10-23: 4% 10-26: 5% 10-27: 5% 10-29: 6% 10-30: 5% 11-02: 6% 11-03: 6% 11-05: 6% 11-06: 7% 11-09: 6% 11-10: 5% 11-12: 4% 4% EX Furinkazan 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 60% 09-14: 60% 09-15: 60% 09-17: 59% 09-18: 61% 09-21: 61% 09-22: 62% 09-24: 63% 09-25: 58% 09-28: 55% 09-29: 57% 10-01: 60% 10-02: 61% 10-05: 54% 10-06: 52% 10-08: 63% 10-09: 55% 10-12: 56% 10-13: 56% 10-15: 57% 10-16: 56% 10-19: 58% 10-20: 53% 10-22: 46% 10-23: 50% 10-26: 44% 10-27: 38% 10-29: 37% 10-30: 32% 11-02: 32% 11-03: 30% 11-05: 36% 11-06: 37% 11-09: 33% 11-10: 34% 11-12: 27% 27% 0 50 100 before the season 11-12 before the season: 40% 09-14: 41% 09-15: 40% 09-17: 39% 09-18: 40% 09-21: 42% 09-22: 42% 09-24: 42% 09-25: 39% 09-28: 36% 09-29: 39% 10-01: 39% 10-02: 39% 10-05: 34% 10-06: 32% 10-08: 40% 10-09: 35% 10-12: 35% 10-13: 35% 10-15: 37% 10-16: 36% 10-19: 38% 10-20: 33% 10-22: 28% 10-23: 31% 10-26: 26% 10-27: 22% 10-29: 22% 10-30: 18% 11-02: 19% 11-03: 17% 11-05: 21% 11-06: 22% 11-09: 19% 11-10: 19% 11-12: 14% 14% 0 20 40 before the season 11-12 before the season: 10% 09-14: 9% 09-15: 10% 09-17: 10% 09-18: 11% 09-21: 10% 09-22: 10% 09-24: 10% 09-25: 9% 09-28: 9% 09-29: 10% 10-01: 10% 10-02: 9% 10-05: 8% 10-06: 7% 10-08: 9% 10-09: 8% 10-12: 8% 10-13: 8% 10-15: 9% 10-16: 9% 10-19: 9% 10-20: 7% 10-22: 6% 10-23: 7% 10-26: 6% 10-27: 5% 10-29: 5% 10-30: 4% 11-02: 4% 11-03: 4% 11-05: 5% 11-06: 4% 11-09: 4% 11-10: 4% 11-12: 3% 3% Past chances are recalculated from the results up to that day only.
When a clinch or elimination becomes possibleRegular Season, from the theoretical best and worst For now, no team can yet clinch or be eliminated from the Semifinal Series or Regular Season 1st.The soonest it can happen is after each team plays 32 more games, around 12/18.Until then, see the standings odds above.
Methodology The remaining games are filled with results drawn at random from past M.League games (points by placement).Each team's strength is the average of its players' skill estimates, which shifts its points per game slightly.As one season's results are mostly luck, skill differences carry little weight.For details, see the methodology (Japanese) (in Japanese).