Regular Season · 39 players · 24 games
2026-27 season
Actual results per game were as much as 150pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 0.7pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck. It is early in the season with few games, so every player's estimate is near the league average.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 1+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ooi Takaharu | 2 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +86.3 | +85.8 | |
| 2Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 3 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +46.3 | +45.9 | |
| 3Shirinashihama Wataru | 3 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +45.7 | +45.4 | |
| 4Asakura Koshin | 2 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +64.4 | +64.0 | |
| 5Tojyo Rio | 2 | +0.2 | 0.0 | +44.3 | +44.1 | |
| 6Setokuma Naoki | 2 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +41.9 | +41.7 | |
| 7Sasaki Hisato | 4 | +0.2 | -0.2 | +20.1 | +19.9 | |
| 8Katsumata Kenji | 3 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +25.9 | +25.7 | |
| 9Hori Shingo | 3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +19.1 | +18.9 | |
| 10Kayamori Sayaka | 2 | +0.1 | 0.0 | +20.2 | +20.1 | |
| 11Nikaido Aki | 2 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +19.5 | +19.4 | |
| 12Aikawa Megumu | 4 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +7.9 | +7.8 | |
| 13Honda Tomohiro | 3 | 0.0 | +0.1 | +6.7 | +6.6 | |
| 14Shimoishi Geki | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +7.2 | +7.2 | |
| 15Watanabe Futoshi | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +5.9 | +5.8 | |
| 16Kurosawa Saki | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +3.2 | +3.1 | |
| 17Suzuki Yu | 2 | 0.0 | +0.2 | +2.8 | +2.8 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 18Nakabayashi Kei | 4 | 0.0 | +0.2 | -1.8 | -1.8 | |
| 19Uchikawa Kotaro | 3 | 0.0 | +0.1 | -3.3 | -3.2 | |
| 20Mizuhara Akina | 2 | 0.0 | +0.1 | -5.6 | -5.6 | |
| 21Asami Maki | 2 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -8.0 | -8.0 | |
| 22Nakada Kana | 3 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -5.8 | -5.8 | |
| 23Sonoda Ken | 3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -7.0 | -6.9 | |
| 24Okada Sayaka | 2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -10.5 | -10.4 | |
| 25Takeuchi Genta | 2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -10.9 | -10.9 | |
| 26Shiratori Sho | 2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -12.6 | -12.6 | |
| 27Ishii Kazuma | 3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -9.4 | -9.3 | |
| 28Akutsu Shota | 2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -20.0 | -19.9 | |
| 29Takizawa Kazunori | 2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -22.0 | -21.9 | |
| 30Suzuki Daisuke | 3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -14.9 | -14.8 | |
| 31Daigo Hiroshi | 2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -23.9 | -23.8 | |
| 32Miura Tomohiro | 1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -48.1 | -48.0 | |
| 33HIRO Shibata | 2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -34.0 | -33.8 | |
| 34Sano Hinako | 2 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -45.3 | -45.1 | |
| 35Hinata Aiko | 3 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -31.2 | -31.0 | |
| 36Date Arisa | 2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -51.3 | -51.0 | |
| 37Suzuki Taro | 3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -37.8 | -37.5 | |
| 38Nagai Kosuke | 2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -63.8 | -63.5 | |
| 39Hagiwara Masato | 3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -44.7 | -44.3 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Not being chased (/first riichi) | Painful dealer tsumo rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setokuma Naoki | +55.1 | -0.09 | -0.06 | +3.3% | +0.07 | +13.6% | +11.0% | 50.0% |
| Ooi Takaharu | +40.4 | +0.11 | +0.22 | +0.3% | -0.21 | -5.5% | +25.3% | 16.7% |
| Tojyo Rio | +38.0 | +0.02 | -0.13 | -0.1% | +0.30 | -5.5% | -12.2% | 25.0% |
| Sasaki Hisato | +33.3 | -0.12 | +0.04 | +2.8% | -0.28 | +13.6% | +0.3% | 27.3% |
| Asakura Koshin | +30.7 | +0.33 | -0.13 | +3.3% | +0.08 | +20.3% | +25.3% | 0.0% |
| Shirinashihama Wataru | +25.4 | +0.30 | -0.03 | +2.3% | +0.68 | +0.3% | +5.3% | 0.0% |
| Kayamori Sayaka | +24.4 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +3.1% | +1.75 | +46.9% | -8.0% | 14.3% |
| Hinata Aiko | +11.5 | +0.06 | -0.07 | +3.0% | +0.27 | +13.6% | -4.7% | 28.6% |
| Watanabe Futoshi | +9.4 | +0.10 | +0.28 | +2.5% | -0.34 | -19.7% | -24.7% | 16.7% |
| Asami Maki | +5.6 | +0.21 | +0.25 | +0.8% | +1.30 | -19.7% | -41.4% | 0.0% |
| Akutsu Shota | +4.6 | -0.04 | +0.07 | +0.5% | -0.15 | -19.7% | -8.0% | 14.3% |
| Hori Shingo | +4.6 | -0.15 | -0.09 | +0.5% | +0.59 | -19.7% | +0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kurosawa Saki | +4.0 | +0.01 | +0.37 | -3.0% | +0.64 | -19.7% | +25.3% | 16.7% |
| Matsumoto Yoshihiro | +3.8 | +0.18 | +0.10 | +1.1% | +1.16 | -3.1% | -19.1% | 30.0% |
| Nakada Kana | +3.7 | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.0% | +0.40 | +0.3% | +25.3% | 7.1% |
| Aikawa Megumu | +2.2 | +0.02 | -0.04 | +0.9% | -0.19 | -5.5% | -8.0% | 14.3% |
| Shimoishi Geki | +0.9 | -0.05 | -0.15 | +1.1% | +0.66 | +30.3% | -8.0% | 28.6% |
| Shiratori Sho | -0.5 | -0.09 | -0.07 | +0.1% | +0.63 | +30.3% | -24.7% | 0.0% |
| Takeuchi Genta | -0.6 | +0.20 | +0.08 | +1.3% | -0.27 | -19.7% | +25.3% | 18.2% |
| Ishii Kazuma | -0.9 | -0.02 | +0.12 | +0.9% | +2.46 | -19.7% | -34.7% | 8.3% |
| Suzuki Taro | -3.8 | +0.18 | +0.04 | +0.3% | +0.10 | -19.7% | +0.3% | 16.7% |
| Nikaido Aki | -6.3 | -0.15 | +0.03 | +1.4% | -0.40 | -19.7% | +5.3% | 0.0% |
| Suzuki Daisuke | -6.6 | -0.03 | +0.04 | +0.4% | +0.23 | -3.1% | -12.2% | 16.7% |
| Sonoda Ken | -6.6 | +0.09 | -0.02 | -1.1% | +0.26 | +13.6% | +0.3% | 22.2% |
| Honda Tomohiro | -7.2 | -0.00 | -0.09 | -2.1% | +1.39 | +5.3% | +0.3% | 11.1% |
| Uchikawa Kotaro | -9.0 | +0.18 | -0.21 | +2.0% | +0.20 | -5.5% | +11.0% | 42.9% |
| Date Arisa | -10.2 | +0.06 | +0.14 | -0.3% | -0.36 | -19.7% | -8.0% | 33.3% |
| Nagai Kosuke | -11.3 | +0.39 | +0.11 | -0.2% | -0.42 | -19.7% | +12.8% | 0.0% |
| Okada Sayaka | -14.5 | -0.36 | +0.24 | +3.3% | +0.71 | -19.7% | +5.3% | 14.3% |
| Katsumata Kenji | -14.8 | +0.19 | -0.12 | -0.9% | -0.08 | -19.7% | +25.3% | 0.0% |
| Nakabayashi Kei | -14.8 | -0.06 | -0.07 | -0.3% | -0.15 | -19.7% | -24.7% | 5.9% |
| HIRO Shibata | -16.9 | -0.31 | +0.10 | -3.2% | +0.11 | +80.3% | -8.0% | 0.0% |
| Mizuhara Akina | -18.9 | -0.10 | -0.23 | +0.3% | +0.60 | -19.7% | +25.3% | 10.0% |
| Daigo Hiroshi | -21.7 | -0.07 | -0.13 | +1.3% | -0.30 | -19.7% | -8.0% | 25.0% |
| Takizawa Kazunori | -23.3 | -0.29 | +0.10 | -5.0% | -0.38 | +13.6% | +25.3% | 10.0% |
| Suzuki Yu | -24.7 | +0.21 | -0.15 | -0.8% | -0.41 | -19.7% | +8.6% | 0.0% |
| Hagiwara Masato | -26.5 | +0.07 | -0.10 | -3.4% | +0.56 | -19.7% | -3.3% | 27.3% |
| Miura Tomohiro | -32.5 | -0.14 | -0.23 | -1.2% | -0.83 | -19.7% | — | 25.0% |
| Sano Hinako | -49.9 | -0.23 | -0.19 | -2.1% | -0.43 | -19.7% | -24.7% | 0.0% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2026-27 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.