Regular Season · 40 players · 132 games
2026-27 season
Actual results per game were as much as 89pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 7.1pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Spread of skill estimates
7.1
pt/game; actual spread 88.7
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Naoki Setokuma | 13 | +3.4 | +2.6 | +38.8 | +35.4 | |
| 2Tomohiro Honda | 16 | +2.3 | +2.9 | +22.2 | +19.8 | |
| 3Sayaka Okada | 12 | +2.3 | +2.0 | +28.2 | +25.9 | |
| 4HIRO Shibata | 16 | +1.7 | +2.5 | +15.7 | +14.0 | |
| 5Shingo Hori | 14 | +1.6 | +2.0 | +17.5 | +15.9 | |
| 6Futoshi Watanabe | 15 | +1.5 | +1.2 | +15.5 | +13.9 | |
| 7Wataru Shirinashihama | 15 | +1.5 | +1.8 | +14.7 | +13.3 | |
| 8Hisato Sasaki | 16 | +1.0 | -0.4 | +9.5 | +8.5 | |
| 9Hiroshi Daigo | 15 | +0.9 | +1.7 | +8.9 | +8.0 | |
| 10Mari Takamiya | 11 | +0.6 | -0.5 | +8.0 | +7.4 | |
| 11Takaharu Ooi | 15 | +0.5 | -0.7 | +5.5 | +5.0 | |
| 12Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 17 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +4.4 | +3.9 | |
| 13Kei Nakabayashi | 16 | +0.3 | -0.3 | +3.1 | +2.8 | |
| 14Kenji Katsumata | 14 | +0.2 | +1.2 | +2.5 | +2.3 | |
| 15Maki Asami | 11 | +0.2 | -0.6 | +3.1 | +2.9 | |
| 16Rio Tojyo | 14 | +0.2 | -0.5 | +2.1 | +1.9 | |
| 17Kazunori Takizawa | 13 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +1.8 | +1.6 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 18Taro Suzuki | 13 | -0.1 | -0.5 | -1.6 | -1.5 | |
| 19Kana Nakada | 11 | -0.2 | +0.4 | -2.3 | -2.1 | |
| 20Yu Suzuki | 14 | -0.2 | +1.3 | -2.1 | -1.9 | |
| 21Daisuke Suzuki | 13 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -2.3 | -2.1 | |
| 22Megumu Aikawa | 12 | -0.3 | +0.3 | -4.0 | -3.7 | |
| 23Aki Nikaido | 11 | -0.5 | +0.1 | -6.2 | -5.7 | |
| 24Shota Akutsu | 13 | -0.5 | -1.0 | -5.7 | -5.2 | |
| 25Sayaka Kayamori | 12 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -6.5 | -6.0 | |
| 26Geki Shimoishi | 14 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -5.7 | -5.2 | |
| 27Arisa Date | 14 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -6.4 | -5.8 | |
| 28Akina Mizuhara | 11 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -8.2 | -7.5 | |
| 29Saki Kurosawa | 12 | -0.8 | -1.1 | -9.2 | -8.5 | |
| 30Genta Takeuchi | 16 | -0.8 | -0.3 | -7.3 | -6.5 | |
| 31Koshin Asakura | 13 | -0.8 | -1.4 | -9.7 | -8.8 | |
| 32Kotaro Uchikawa | 14 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -9.6 | -8.7 | |
| 33Sho Shiratori | 10 | -1.0 | -0.7 | -14.3 | -13.3 | |
| 34Ken Sonoda | 15 | -1.1 | -1.6 | -11.4 | -10.2 | |
| 35Kazuma Ishii | 16 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -11.9 | -10.7 | |
| 36Kosuke Nagai | 13 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -17.6 | -16.1 | |
| 37Aiko Hinata | 10 | -1.9 | -2.6 | -27.6 | -25.7 | |
| 38Masato Hagiwara | 11 | -3.7 | -3.0 | -50.0 | -46.2 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naoki Setokuma | +16.4 | +0.05 | -0.02 | +0.6% | -0.03 | -0.4% | +3.7% | 20.6% |
| Mari Takamiya | +13.2 | +0.05 | +0.10 | +1.4% | +0.10 | -2.1% | +5.3% | 12.5% |
| Hisato Sasaki | +12.4 | -0.03 | +0.04 | +0.9% | -0.10 | -15.2% | -7.1% | 17.4% |
| Takaharu Ooi | +11.1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.5% | -0.26 | +8.0% | -10.4% | 15.6% |
| Sayaka Okada | +9.6 | -0.08 | +0.07 | +0.4% | +0.09 | -7.7% | -9.9% | 14.7% |
| Maki Asami | +8.8 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.3% | +0.37 | +8.0% | +0.4% | 3.0% |
| Futoshi Watanabe | +6.4 | -0.01 | +0.04 | +0.5% | -0.07 | +9.7% | -5.7% | 13.5% |
| Rio Tojyo | +6.2 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.8% | +0.03 | +3.0% | +2.0% | 6.1% |
| Kei Nakabayashi | +5.6 | +0.10 | +0.01 | -0.5% | +0.16 | -1.6% | -3.6% | 9.1% |
| Daisuke Suzuki | +5.3 | +0.03 | +0.09 | +1.2% | +0.12 | -1.6% | -5.0% | 10.0% |
| Shota Akutsu | +3.0 | +0.00 | -0.09 | +1.1% | -0.07 | -4.0% | -14.6% | 12.8% |
| Taro Suzuki | +2.9 | +0.09 | +0.00 | -1.3% | +0.23 | +6.9% | +6.6% | 10.8% |
| Koshin Asakura | +2.6 | +0.04 | -0.00 | -0.2% | -0.07 | +6.9% | +3.6% | 15.0% |
| Shingo Hori | +1.4 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.4% | +0.09 | -13.1% | +1.2% | 7.3% |
| Wataru Shirinashihama | +1.4 | -0.14 | +0.01 | +0.0% | +0.25 | +3.8% | +7.2% | 8.7% |
| Tomohiro Honda | +1.2 | +0.02 | -0.02 | +0.1% | +0.45 | +8.0% | -6.9% | 18.4% |
| Ken Sonoda | +1.0 | -0.06 | -0.09 | +0.1% | +0.06 | +13.6% | -1.3% | 15.2% |
| Saki Kurosawa | +1.0 | +0.10 | -0.02 | +0.1% | +0.04 | +1.7% | +13.4% | 19.4% |
| Sayaka Kayamori | +0.5 | -0.00 | -0.01 | -0.6% | +0.41 | +18.7% | -1.0% | 14.3% |
| Aiko Hinata | +0.4 | +0.05 | +0.15 | +0.0% | +0.13 | -7.2% | -3.2% | 15.6% |
| Yoshihiro Matsumoto | -0.9 | +0.00 | +0.12 | +0.3% | +0.32 | -9.2% | +0.4% | 8.5% |
| Kazunori Takizawa | -2.1 | -0.12 | +0.08 | -1.1% | +0.08 | +1.3% | +1.5% | 13.5% |
| HIRO Shibata | -2.3 | -0.10 | +0.04 | -1.1% | +0.18 | +3.8% | -0.5% | 6.5% |
| Kotaro Uchikawa | -2.5 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.1% | -0.06 | -1.0% | +12.8% | 12.8% |
| Kazuma Ishii | -2.9 | +0.03 | +0.02 | -0.2% | -0.14 | +3.8% | -16.8% | 7.5% |
| Akina Mizuhara | -3.7 | -0.08 | -0.14 | -0.5% | +0.27 | +5.3% | +9.2% | 11.4% |
| Hiroshi Daigo | -4.1 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.0% | +0.08 | -8.2% | +0.4% | 20.0% |
| Arisa Date | -4.3 | -0.01 | +0.08 | -0.8% | -0.14 | +0.3% | -4.7% | 15.9% |
| Genta Takeuchi | -4.9 | +0.04 | -0.08 | +0.5% | -0.02 | -3.1% | +6.0% | 11.1% |
| Kosuke Nagai | -5.7 | +0.08 | +0.00 | -0.8% | -0.12 | +5.3% | +11.6% | 8.0% |
| Kana Nakada | -5.8 | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.5% | +0.08 | -10.7% | -2.4% | 12.8% |
| Geki Shimoishi | -6.1 | -0.01 | -0.11 | +0.5% | +0.44 | +16.6% | -5.1% | 20.0% |
| Megumu Aikawa | -6.6 | +0.00 | -0.01 | -1.1% | -0.17 | +1.7% | +2.8% | 14.3% |
| Tomohiro Miura | -6.9 | +0.03 | -0.19 | -0.3% | +0.26 | -9.7% | +0.4% | 4.3% |
| Aki Nikaido | -6.9 | +0.01 | +0.02 | -0.2% | -0.26 | -8.0% | -1.3% | 2.9% |
| Kenji Katsumata | -7.1 | +0.01 | -0.07 | -0.1% | -0.20 | -9.7% | +11.7% | 4.8% |
| Sho Shiratori | -7.2 | +0.03 | +0.02 | -0.4% | +0.57 | -5.5% | -15.8% | 3.3% |
| Hinako Sano | -9.4 | +0.01 | -0.06 | +0.1% | +0.39 | +2.5% | -14.6% | 11.4% |
| Yu Suzuki | -12.7 | -0.06 | -0.11 | +0.7% | -0.19 | -13.5% | -13.8% | 14.6% |
| Masato Hagiwara | -19.8 | +0.01 | +0.01 | -1.2% | +0.28 | -19.7% | -3.2% | 19.0% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2026-27 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.