2026-27 season · 24 games played · games up to 9/25
Skill, or luck?
About 94% of the gap between players over one M.League season is explained by luck.
We split players' results into luck and skill from the game records, and update them with this season's standings odds the morning after each match day.
Standings odds2026-27, the rest of the season simulated 20,000 times
In the circle: the chance of reaching the Semifinals (%); on the right: the chance of winning the title. Only 24 games in, so there is little data behind these chances (caveats).All standings odds
The hands that decided the latest games9/25
- Game 1South 2, 1 honba+37.7Asakura Koshin tsumo 12,000. Asakura Koshin's expected points moved
- Game 2South 1, 1 honba+32.4Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000. Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points moved
- Table B Game 1East 3, 1 honba+28.7Hori Shingo tsumo 8,000. Hori Shingo's expected points moved
- Table B Game 2South 2, 2 honba+25.7Shirinashihama Wataru ron 5,200 from Ishii Kazuma. Shirinashihama Wataru's expected points moved
Luck, up and down2025-26, actual − skill estimate (pt/game)
Regular Season, 10+ games. Around 25 games, almost all of this gap is luck. Every player's results and skill estimate
Reading a game2026-27 9/25 Game 1
The hand that decided this game: South 2, 1 honba · Asakura Koshin tsumo 12,000
This game hand by hand · Column: how much of M.League placement is luck? (Japanese) · Are these numbers right? (Japanese)