2026-27 season · 132 games played · games up to 11/12
Skill, or luck?
About 85% of the gap between players over one M.League season is explained by luck.
We split players' results into luck and skill from the game records, and update them with this season's standings odds the morning after each match day.
Standings odds2026-27, the rest of the season simulated 20,000 times
In the circle: the chance of reaching the Semifinal Series (%); on the right: the chance of winning the title. Only 132 games in, so there is little data behind these chances (caveats).All standings odds
The hands that decided the latest games11/12
- Game 1South 4+43.2Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 5,200. Hiroshi Daigo's expected points moved
- Game 2South 2, 3 honba+43.4Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi. Arisa Date's expected points moved
- Table B Game 1South 4+34.9Wataru Shirinashihama ron 5,200 from Kazuma Ishii. Wataru Shirinashihama's expected points moved
- Table B Game 2East 2+43.3Shingo Hori tsumo 18,000. Shingo Hori's expected points moved
Luck, up and down2026-27, actual − skill estimate (pt/game)
Regular Season, 10+ games. Around 25 games, almost all of this gap is luck. Every player's results and skill estimate
Reading a game2026-27 11/12 Game 2
The hand that decided this game: South 2, 3 honba · Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi
This game hand by hand · Column: how much of M.League placement is luck? (Japanese) · Are these numbers right? (Japanese)