Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
1/6 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+68.4pt). The game was decided in South 1: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 16,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +39.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Fujisaki Satoshi 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Fujisaki Satoshi Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 26% | 23% | 26% | +9.2 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -4.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Murakami Jun ron 8,000 from Fujisaki Satoshi | 30% | 24% | 22% | 24% | -4.3 | +22.9 | -18.9 | +0.3 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Murakami Jun | 25% | 41% | 12% | 23% | +1.9 | -24.2 | -0.8 | +23.1 |
| East 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 1,300 from Setokuma Naoki | 27% | 21% | 12% | 41% | +5.1 | +1.4 | -4.0 | -2.5 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,900 from Murakami Jun | 31% | 21% | 9% | 38% | -3.1 | -8.8 | +0.8 | +11.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 27% | 16% | 8% | 49% | -4.6 | +3.0 | -3.4 | +5.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,600 from Fujisaki Satoshi | 23% | 17% | 7% | 54% | +16.7 | +0.2 | -9.6 | -7.2 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 16,000 | 35% | 16% | 4% | 44% | -24.5 | -8.6 | -6.7 | +39.8 |
| South 2 | Fujisaki Satoshi ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 3% | 5% | 1% | 91% | -22.0 | -1.5 | +20.8 | +2.7 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 0% | 2% | 97% | -4.0 | -2.8 | +8.3 | -1.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 0% | 1% | 4% | 96% | -8.5 | +1.4 | +2.1 | +5.0 |
| South 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +39.4 | -25.8 | -8.8 | -4.8 |