Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
1/6 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+68.4pt). The game was decided in South 1: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 16,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +41.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Satoshi Fujisaki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Satoshi Fujisaki Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +8.1 | -4.0 | -0.7 | -3.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Jun Murakami ron 8,000 from Satoshi Fujisaki | 31% | 23% | 23% | 22% | -7.3 | +24.9 | -21.3 | +3.7 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Jun Murakami | 23% | 41% | 12% | 24% | +3.2 | -24.3 | -0.9 | +22.0 |
| East 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,300 from Naoki Setokuma | 26% | 22% | 11% | 41% | +5.2 | +0.7 | -1.1 | -4.8 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,900 from Jun Murakami | 31% | 23% | 10% | 37% | -2.7 | -9.5 | -1.6 | +13.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 15% | 9% | 51% | -2.4 | +4.3 | -2.4 | +0.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,600 from Satoshi Fujisaki | 23% | 19% | 8% | 50% | +15.9 | -1.3 | -9.3 | -5.2 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 16,000 | 38% | 15% | 5% | 43% | -25.4 | -9.5 | -6.3 | +41.2 |
| South 2 | Satoshi Fujisaki ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 3% | 4% | 1% | 92% | -22.4 | +0.1 | +20.4 | +1.9 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 3% | 96% | -3.8 | -4.1 | +8.4 | -0.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 0% | 0% | 3% | 96% | -8.4 | +2.9 | +1.1 | +4.4 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +39.5 | -26.3 | -8.4 | -4.8 |