Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
1/14 Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+90.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +38.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +4.6 | +0.8 | -2.1 | -3.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 7,800 | 28% | 25% | 24% | 23% | +22.8 | -8.2 | -8.0 | -6.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 3,900 | 45% | 19% | 19% | 18% | +10.8 | -3.8 | -2.8 | -4.2 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 15% | 15% | 14% | +5.2 | -4.6 | -3.1 | +2.4 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 60% | 13% | 13% | 14% | -3.4 | +26.9 | -2.8 | -20.7 |
| East 2 | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 2,000 | 57% | 25% | 11% | 7% | +9.7 | -5.4 | -0.2 | -4.0 |
| East 3 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 68% | 18% | 10% | 5% | +0.5 | -27.8 | +27.2 | +0.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 68% | 6% | 21% | 5% | -0.2 | -3.6 | +5.2 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 66% | 5% | 23% | 5% | +4.5 | -0.9 | -31.7 | +28.1 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 75% | 5% | 8% | 12% | -11.8 | -10.4 | -9.2 | +31.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 59% | 3% | 5% | 32% | -3.0 | +1.3 | -3.1 | +4.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kanako Maruyama ron 8,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 55% | 4% | 5% | 37% | +21.6 | +2.6 | -16.3 | -7.8 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 2,600 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 78% | 2% | 1% | 18% | -0.9 | +4.7 | -4.2 | +0.5 |
| South 2 | Kanako Maruyama ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 80% | 2% | 1% | 16% | +14.9 | -14.0 | +1.2 | -2.0 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 94% | 0% | 0% | 6% | -2.6 | -3.0 | +3.4 | +2.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 91% | 0% | 1% | 9% | -8.6 | +1.9 | -14.5 | +21.2 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 77% | 0% | 0% | 23% | -26.6 | +3.8 | -16.0 | +38.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 89% | -8.3 | -4.2 | -4.1 | +16.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -2.2 | -1.2 | +8.8 | -5.3 |