Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
1/16 Game 2
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+64.4pt). The game was decided in South 2: Mari Takamiya tsumo 24,000, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +72.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 3,000 | 23% | 24% | 26% | 26% | +8.8 | -1.1 | -4.2 | -3.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Mari Takamiya | 30% | 23% | 24% | 23% | -1.4 | +11.0 | -10.4 | +0.8 |
| East 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,000 | 29% | 30% | 17% | 24% | -2.4 | +11.5 | -1.4 | -7.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 27% | 39% | 16% | 18% | -3.7 | +31.3 | -1.2 | -26.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 1,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 17% | 67% | 10% | 5% | -2.2 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +2.2 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 15% | 69% | 10% | 6% | +7.6 | +1.6 | -6.1 | -3.1 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,600 from Takaharu Ooi | 18% | 72% | 6% | 4% | +5.9 | +2.3 | 0.0 | -8.2 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,500 from Mari Takamiya | 19% | 74% | 6% | 1% | +4.0 | -1.8 | -3.3 | +1.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 21% | 71% | 5% | 2% | -3.7 | +3.5 | +15.3 | -15.1 |
| South 2 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 24,000 | 16% | 77% | 7% | 1% | -19.7 | -46.0 | +72.6 | -6.9 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 9% | 88% | 0% | -5.6 | -7.3 | +17.0 | -4.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 99% | 0% | +4.0 | -1.2 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 18,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -30.8 | +5.2 | -0.1 | +25.8 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | -17.0 | -8.0 | -4.9 | +29.9 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 0% | 98% | 2% | -7.0 | -21.7 | -11.7 | +40.4 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 0% | 0% | 84% | 16% | +3.4 | +0.5 | +3.3 | -7.3 |