Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
1/16 Game 2
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+64.4pt). The game was decided in South 2: Takamiya Mari tsumo 24,000, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +71.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 3,000 | 24% | 26% | 26% | 24% | +8.0 | -2.8 | -2.9 | -2.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Takamiya Mari | 30% | 24% | 24% | 22% | -0.3 | +11.9 | -12.3 | +0.7 |
| East 2 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 3,000 | 30% | 30% | 17% | 23% | -4.7 | +10.9 | -2.0 | -4.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 24% | 39% | 16% | 21% | +0.2 | +30.2 | -1.3 | -29.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 1,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 19% | 65% | 11% | 5% | -5.0 | +1.0 | +0.9 | +3.1 |
| East 3 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,000 from Takamiya Mari | 14% | 70% | 10% | 6% | +9.8 | +0.3 | -6.8 | -3.4 |
| East 4 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,600 from Ooi Takaharu | 19% | 71% | 6% | 5% | +6.8 | +2.4 | -0.2 | -9.0 |
| South 1 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,500 from Takamiya Mari | 20% | 73% | 6% | 2% | +3.0 | -0.6 | -3.7 | +1.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 23% | 72% | 4% | 2% | -4.4 | +2.6 | +16.8 | -15.0 |
| South 2 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 24,000 | 16% | 76% | 7% | 1% | -20.5 | -44.1 | +71.7 | -7.1 |
| South 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 10% | 87% | 0% | -5.0 | -8.1 | +17.3 | -4.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 1% | 99% | 0% | +4.2 | -1.8 | -2.0 | -0.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 18,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -30.7 | +5.7 | -0.1 | +25.1 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -17.1 | -7.6 | -4.8 | +29.6 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 0% | 98% | 2% | -7.2 | -22.2 | -11.9 | +41.2 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,000 from Takamiya Mari | 0% | 0% | 85% | 15% | +3.2 | +0.4 | +3.3 | -7.0 |