Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
1/23 Game 2
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+54.2pt). The game was decided in South 3: Masato Hagiwara tsumo 18,000, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +67.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 25% | 25% | 27% | +5.3 | -3.3 | +2.1 | -4.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 22% | 26% | 24% | -4.3 | +3.2 | +3.3 | -2.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 3,000 | 23% | 26% | 28% | 24% | -4.5 | +16.8 | -6.9 | -5.5 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 38% | 23% | 19% | -7.8 | -13.3 | +26.7 | -5.6 |
| East 3 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 25% | 45% | 16% | -8.3 | +36.0 | -20.0 | -7.7 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 59% | 22% | 10% | +38.4 | -7.7 | -12.3 | -18.4 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 51% | 14% | 3% | +1.3 | -3.0 | -2.4 | +4.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura ron 3,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 32% | 48% | 15% | 5% | +0.9 | +1.3 | -14.7 | +12.5 |
| South 2 | Koshin Asakura tsumo 12,000 | 34% | 48% | 9% | 9% | -7.9 | -25.5 | -12.2 | +45.6 |
| South 3 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 18,000 | 30% | 23% | 7% | 41% | -22.8 | -21.4 | +67.7 | -23.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 6,000 | 14% | 11% | 55% | 20% | -7.0 | -5.6 | +19.9 | -7.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 1,500 | 4% | 4% | 82% | 10% | -6.1 | +14.5 | +0.1 | -8.5 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 3% | 88% | 8% | -6.1 | +4.8 | -3.0 | +4.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 6,400 | 1% | 6% | 83% | 11% | -12.4 | +14.7 | +6.0 | -8.3 |