Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
1/28 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+50.8pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Exhaustive draw, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +38.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +2.9 | -2.0 | +3.4 | -4.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 24% | 26% | 22% | +2.9 | -0.6 | -5.9 | +3.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 2,000 | 29% | 23% | 23% | 25% | -9.8 | +16.1 | -3.9 | -2.4 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 35% | 20% | 23% | -1.7 | -4.6 | +5.8 | +0.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 20% | 31% | 26% | 22% | -2.1 | +8.1 | -5.3 | -0.6 |
| East 4 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 38% | 20% | 23% | -10.0 | -13.0 | -13.7 | +36.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 24% | 11% | 53% | +24.7 | -6.4 | -4.5 | -13.8 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 29% | 21% | 10% | 40% | -16.2 | +29.9 | -7.2 | -6.6 |
| South 2 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 2,000 | 14% | 47% | 8% | 31% | -1.7 | -3.6 | -5.2 | +10.5 |
| South 3 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 4,000 | 12% | 42% | 5% | 41% | +14.7 | +3.5 | -11.3 | -6.9 |
| South 4 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 3,000 | 20% | 51% | 1% | 29% | -6.4 | -15.0 | -1.4 | +22.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 21% | 0% | 66% | -9.9 | +38.6 | +0.6 | -29.3 |