Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
2/4 Game 1
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+73.7pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 18,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +47.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 27% | 23% | -1.7 | -1.3 | 0.0 | +2.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 18,000 | 23% | 24% | 27% | 25% | -16.7 | +47.3 | -15.8 | -14.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 10% | 64% | 12% | 13% | +2.4 | -1.6 | -21.0 | +20.1 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 1,100 | 10% | 63% | 5% | 21% | +2.2 | +1.5 | -2.5 | -1.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 66% | 4% | 21% | -2.3 | -2.5 | -3.2 | +8.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 2,700 | 9% | 62% | 3% | 26% | -3.6 | +13.9 | -1.4 | -8.9 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,600 from Ken Sonoda | 6% | 79% | 2% | 12% | -10.7 | +1.5 | +0.5 | +8.7 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,300 from Ken Sonoda | 1% | 81% | 2% | 16% | -1.2 | -0.1 | -1.0 | +2.3 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 3,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 84% | 2% | 14% | +2.5 | +9.4 | -5.5 | -6.4 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 96% | 0% | 4% | +1.2 | +4.6 | -2.5 | -3.3 |