Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
2/7 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+75.0pt). The game was decided in South 4: Sayaka Okada ron 18,000 from Masato Hagiwara, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +50.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 2,000 | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -4.0 | -2.1 | -1.3 | +7.3 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 2,600 from Koshin Asakura | 20% | 24% | 25% | 31% | -8.4 | -2.0 | -0.5 | +11.0 |
| East 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,000 from Koshin Asakura | 16% | 21% | 22% | 41% | -5.4 | +7.1 | -1.8 | +0.1 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 25% | 21% | 40% | -2.3 | -2.6 | -2.9 | +7.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,600 from Sayaka Okada | 12% | 22% | 19% | 47% | -3.3 | +12.5 | +0.5 | -9.6 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 33% | 18% | 37% | +4.9 | -6.0 | +4.8 | -3.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura ron 12,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 14% | 29% | 22% | 35% | +37.8 | -2.1 | -34.9 | -0.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 8,000 | 37% | 25% | 6% | 31% | -12.2 | -5.7 | +25.1 | -7.2 |
| South 2 | Koshin Asakura ron 5,200 from Masato Hagiwara | 29% | 24% | 19% | 29% | +24.3 | -22.7 | -2.1 | +0.5 |
| South 3 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 56% | 6% | 14% | 24% | -6.1 | +1.6 | +45.2 | -40.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 7,700 from Sayaka Okada | 41% | 5% | 49% | 5% | -8.1 | +1.3 | +21.0 | -14.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 5,200 from Koshin Asakura | 19% | 2% | 77% | 1% | -13.8 | +0.1 | +5.7 | +8.0 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 18,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 4% | 0% | 94% | 2% | -9.9 | -37.6 | -3.1 | +50.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 5,800 from Masato Hagiwara | 3% | 0% | 85% | 12% | -3.4 | -6.4 | -3.1 | +12.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 0% | 78% | 20% | -6.6 | -4.0 | -33.1 | +43.7 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 93% | -4.3 | -4.4 | -7.3 | +16.0 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Koshin Asakura tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +32.5 | -3.0 | -21.9 | -7.7 |