Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
2/10 Game 2
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+54.2pt). The game was decided in South 1, 4 honba: Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +29.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +2.3 | -3.4 | -3.1 | +4.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 8,000 | 28% | 24% | 22% | 27% | -13.3 | -9.2 | -5.6 | +28.1 |
| East 2 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 1,300 from Mari Takamiya | 15% | 16% | 18% | 51% | 0.0 | -6.1 | +0.9 | +5.2 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 15% | 12% | 17% | 56% | +1.7 | +22.4 | -5.1 | -19.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 28% | 14% | 38% | -6.6 | +2.8 | -2.4 | +6.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 8,000 | 14% | 28% | 13% | 45% | -4.8 | -7.4 | +28.9 | -16.8 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 23% | 35% | 29% | +1.5 | -2.0 | -3.0 | +3.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 22% | 31% | 32% | +7.7 | -1.8 | -3.0 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 18% | 22% | 30% | 30% | +46.4 | -5.3 | -2.0 | -39.0 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 14% | 22% | 7% | +2.3 | +5.8 | -6.2 | -1.9 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 59% | 17% | 18% | 6% | -14.1 | +29.8 | -8.4 | -7.3 |
| South 2 | Takaharu Ooi ron 3,900 from Kazunori Takizawa | 41% | 42% | 13% | 4% | -1.1 | -1.0 | +9.3 | -7.3 |
| South 3 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 2,000 | 39% | 41% | 17% | 3% | +3.6 | +3.7 | -10.1 | +2.8 |
| South 4 | Mari Takamiya ron 1,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 41% | 47% | 9% | 3% | -13.8 | +24.9 | -4.4 | -6.7 |