Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
2/10 Game 2
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+54.2pt). The game was decided in South 1, 4 honba: Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +31.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +1.7 | -3.7 | -3.3 | +5.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 21% | 23% | 28% | -12.2 | -7.3 | -7.7 | +27.2 |
| East 2 | Takizawa Kazunori ron 1,300 from Takamiya Mari | 16% | 16% | 16% | 52% | -0.8 | -5.7 | +0.2 | +6.3 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 16% | 10% | 15% | 59% | 0.0 | +23.4 | -1.3 | -22.2 |
| East 4 | Draw | 18% | 28% | 16% | 38% | -4.1 | +2.9 | -3.2 | +4.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 30% | 14% | 41% | -8.8 | -6.1 | +27.4 | -12.4 |
| South 1 | Draw | 12% | 25% | 33% | 31% | +5.2 | -4.5 | -2.7 | +2.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 15% | 23% | 31% | 32% | +3.6 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -0.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 12,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 16% | 22% | 29% | 33% | +49.2 | -5.1 | -3.3 | -40.8 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Draw | 56% | 14% | 23% | 7% | +4.2 | +5.3 | -5.9 | -3.6 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 60% | 16% | 18% | 6% | -16.8 | +31.5 | -7.0 | -7.6 |
| South 2 | Ooi Takaharu ron 3,900 from Takizawa Kazunori | 39% | 44% | 13% | 4% | +1.5 | -2.3 | +8.3 | -7.4 |
| South 3 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 2,000 | 39% | 41% | 18% | 2% | +1.3 | +5.1 | -10.8 | +4.4 |
| South 4 | Takamiya Mari ron 1,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 40% | 48% | 8% | 3% | -12.9 | +23.9 | -4.3 | -6.8 |