Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
2/11 Game 2
Akira Wakutsu finished 1st (+54.5pt). The game was decided in South 4: Akira Wakutsu tsumo 3,200, which moved Akira Wakutsu's expected points by +31.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Akira Wakutsu 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Akira Wakutsu Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 1,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -8.4 | -0.3 | +1.8 | +7.0 |
| East 2 | Akira Wakutsu tsumo 3,900 | 19% | 25% | 26% | 30% | +0.1 | +10.0 | -4.6 | -5.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Akira Wakutsu ron 3,900 from Kanako Maruyama | 20% | 31% | 22% | 27% | -1.9 | +14.9 | -14.5 | +1.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 44% | 14% | 26% | +4.2 | -4.9 | +3.5 | -2.8 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 4,000 | 19% | 40% | 16% | 24% | +16.0 | -2.9 | -10.6 | -2.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 37% | 11% | 23% | +4.3 | +0.3 | -0.2 | -4.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 34% | 38% | 10% | 19% | -5.2 | +10.9 | -4.0 | -1.7 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kanako Maruyama ron 3,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 27% | 48% | 8% | 17% | -17.5 | +4.9 | +17.4 | -4.7 |
| South 3 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 60% | 14% | 13% | +39.2 | -10.3 | -24.2 | -4.7 |
| South 4 | Akira Wakutsu tsumo 3,200 | 53% | 37% | 1% | 9% | -20.1 | +31.4 | -7.3 | -4.0 |