Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
2/15 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+61.8pt). The game was decided in East 2: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +29.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Seiichi Kondo ron 5,200 from Sayaka Okada | 25% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -14.2 | +0.7 | +12.2 | +1.4 |
| East 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 25% | 34% | 25% | -10.2 | +29.5 | -9.6 | -9.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 3,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 10% | 47% | 25% | 19% | -1.0 | -12.2 | +14.2 | -1.0 |
| East 3 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 3,000 | 10% | 36% | 36% | 18% | -2.4 | -0.1 | +8.6 | -6.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 34% | 42% | 14% | -2.0 | +9.0 | -4.3 | -2.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,600 from Seiichi Kondo | 7% | 44% | 37% | 12% | -1.0 | +10.6 | -8.4 | -1.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 56% | 28% | 9% | +5.3 | -2.1 | -1.7 | -1.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 1,000 from Sayaka Okada | 8% | 54% | 28% | 10% | -7.8 | +2.4 | +7.8 | -2.4 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,000 | 3% | 57% | 32% | 7% | -2.6 | +7.9 | -3.1 | -2.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 67% | 25% | 6% | -1.4 | +2.8 | +0.2 | -1.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 1,500 | 1% | 74% | 21% | 5% | -2.9 | +10.1 | -7.3 | +0.1 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 0% | 92% | 5% | 3% | +20.8 | +3.8 | +0.9 | -25.6 |