Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
2/17 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+78.2pt). The game was decided in East 2: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +44.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sonoda Ken ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +9.2 | -8.2 | +1.1 | -2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 18,000 | 33% | 18% | 25% | 25% | +43.9 | -14.2 | -15.3 | -14.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 71% | 7% | 11% | 11% | -11.1 | -4.3 | -4.2 | +19.6 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000 | 60% | 7% | 11% | 22% | -15.2 | +44.1 | -15.5 | -13.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 4,000 | 44% | 32% | 7% | 17% | +0.2 | -8.8 | +9.6 | -1.0 |
| East 3 | Draw | 46% | 25% | 11% | 17% | -2.5 | +0.9 | +4.5 | -2.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 5,800 from Takamiya Mari | 44% | 27% | 13% | 16% | -0.5 | -1.2 | +17.0 | -15.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Sonoda Ken | 44% | 25% | 20% | 10% | -4.8 | +8.2 | -1.8 | -1.6 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,200 from Sonoda Ken | 40% | 33% | 18% | 9% | -15.7 | +18.7 | +0.3 | -3.3 |
| South 1 | Draw | 23% | 54% | 17% | 6% | +3.6 | -4.0 | -4.1 | +4.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 48% | 15% | 10% | -16.5 | +26.8 | -5.4 | -4.8 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 82% | 8% | 4% | -5.9 | +17.8 | -5.4 | -6.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 96% | 2% | 1% | -4.5 | +15.0 | -7.1 | -3.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken | 0% | 99% | 1% | 0% | -20.9 | -1.0 | +22.5 | -0.6 |
| South 3 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 99% | 1% | 0% | -6.1 | -4.6 | +17.4 | -6.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 97% | 3% | 0% | -3.7 | -1.5 | +0.9 | +4.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 7,700 from Sonoda Ken | 0% | 96% | 4% | 0% | -13.8 | -2.4 | +11.7 | +4.5 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 92% | 8% | 0% | -6.5 | +1.3 | -9.0 | +14.1 |
| South 4 | Sonoda Ken ron 2,600 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 99% | 1% | 0% | +3.6 | -1.9 | +1.1 | -2.7 |