Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
2/17 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+78.2pt). The game was decided in East 2: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +45.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +10.7 | -10.2 | -0.8 | +0.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 18,000 | 32% | 18% | 24% | 25% | +43.3 | -13.9 | -14.1 | -15.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 70% | 8% | 12% | 11% | -10.4 | -4.5 | -6.5 | +21.4 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000 | 60% | 8% | 9% | 23% | -14.7 | +45.6 | -15.2 | -15.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 4,000 | 45% | 33% | 7% | 16% | +0.5 | -10.9 | +11.9 | -1.4 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 48% | 24% | 11% | 16% | -2.3 | +0.5 | +4.2 | -2.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 5,800 from Mari Takamiya | 45% | 26% | 13% | 16% | +1.2 | -2.9 | +16.8 | -15.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Ken Sonoda | 47% | 23% | 19% | 11% | -6.7 | +10.1 | -2.7 | -0.7 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,200 from Ken Sonoda | 40% | 32% | 18% | 11% | -15.9 | +19.2 | +2.4 | -5.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 53% | 17% | 6% | +3.6 | -4.0 | -4.7 | +5.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 28% | 48% | 16% | 8% | -16.9 | +26.7 | -5.4 | -4.5 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 82% | 8% | 4% | -5.7 | +17.7 | -6.0 | -6.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 95% | 3% | 1% | -3.8 | +15.3 | -7.7 | -3.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -22.3 | -0.7 | +23.1 | -0.1 |
| South 3 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 99% | 1% | 0% | -6.0 | -4.8 | +16.9 | -6.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 97% | 2% | 0% | -3.7 | -2.6 | +2.0 | +4.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 7,700 from Ken Sonoda | 0% | 95% | 5% | 0% | -13.3 | -1.0 | +10.2 | +4.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 93% | 7% | 0% | -6.5 | +0.6 | -7.8 | +13.6 |
| South 4 | Ken Sonoda ron 2,600 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 99% | 1% | 0% | +3.6 | -1.8 | +0.8 | -2.6 |