Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
2/20 Game 1
Fujisaki Satoshi finished 1st (+59.3pt). The game was decided in East 3: Fujisaki Satoshi tsumo 18,000, which moved Fujisaki Satoshi's expected points by +50.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Asakura Koshin 1st-place chance | Fujisaki Satoshi 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Asakura Koshin Expected pt change | Fujisaki Satoshi Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Asakura Koshin ron 1,000 from Fujisaki Satoshi | 27% | 25% | 24% | 24% | -2.9 | +2.4 | -0.7 | +1.2 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | -3.3 | -13.5 | -5.3 | +22.2 |
| East 3 | Fujisaki Satoshi tsumo 18,000 | 20% | 16% | 20% | 44% | -16.9 | -13.6 | +50.5 | -20.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 10% | 8% | 62% | 21% | +3.8 | -4.6 | +1.9 | -1.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Fujisaki Satoshi tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 7% | 63% | 20% | -8.2 | -6.3 | +25.0 | -10.5 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Fujisaki Satoshi | 3% | 2% | 87% | 8% | +20.0 | -1.3 | -16.6 | -2.2 |
| East 4 | Draw | 11% | 5% | 74% | 10% | +2.9 | +1.4 | +1.9 | -6.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 3% | 78% | 7% | -17.1 | -5.7 | -2.5 | +25.3 |
| South 2 | Asakura Koshin ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 3% | 3% | 77% | 17% | +2.6 | +30.1 | +0.3 | -33.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 1,000 from Asakura Koshin | 4% | 10% | 79% | 6% | -1.5 | -5.2 | +5.7 | +1.0 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 2,000 | 2% | 2% | 91% | 5% | -3.4 | -2.3 | -2.6 | +8.2 |
| South 4 | Asakura Koshin ron 1,300 from Fujisaki Satoshi | 1% | 1% | 92% | 6% | -18.6 | +19.8 | +2.8 | -4.0 |