Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
2/20 Game 1
Satoshi Fujisaki finished 1st (+59.3pt). The game was decided in East 3: Satoshi Fujisaki tsumo 18,000, which moved Satoshi Fujisaki's expected points by +49.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Satoshi Fujisaki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Satoshi Fujisaki Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Koshin Asakura ron 1,000 from Satoshi Fujisaki | 25% | 25% | 23% | 26% | -5.0 | +4.8 | -1.1 | +1.3 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 30% | 22% | 27% | -3.6 | -14.1 | -4.6 | +22.2 |
| East 3 | Satoshi Fujisaki tsumo 18,000 | 19% | 18% | 19% | 45% | -12.5 | -14.5 | +49.3 | -22.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 8% | 60% | 22% | +2.4 | -4.7 | +3.9 | -1.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Satoshi Fujisaki tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 7% | 64% | 19% | -7.9 | -7.2 | +24.8 | -9.7 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Satoshi Fujisaki | 3% | 2% | 87% | 8% | +19.7 | -2.7 | -15.2 | -1.9 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 4% | 75% | 11% | +1.9 | +3.8 | +0.4 | -6.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 3% | 79% | 7% | -16.0 | -6.4 | -2.2 | +24.6 |
| South 2 | Koshin Asakura ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 3% | 2% | 77% | 17% | +1.3 | +29.9 | +1.8 | -33.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,000 from Koshin Asakura | 3% | 9% | 82% | 5% | -0.2 | -5.2 | +3.8 | +1.6 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 2,000 | 2% | 2% | 90% | 5% | -4.3 | -2.8 | -1.5 | +8.6 |
| South 4 | Koshin Asakura ron 1,300 from Satoshi Fujisaki | 0% | 1% | 93% | 6% | -17.9 | +20.2 | +2.2 | -4.4 |