Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
2/21 Game 1
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+74.3pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Satoshi Fujisaki, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +37.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Satoshi Fujisaki 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Satoshi Fujisaki Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 26% | 26% | 24% | -5.9 | +3.2 | +3.1 | -0.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 20% | 28% | 28% | 25% | +2.6 | -6.7 | +11.5 | -7.5 |
| East 3 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 2,000 | 23% | 22% | 36% | 20% | -2.7 | +7.0 | -2.9 | -1.4 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 28% | 33% | 19% | -0.5 | -3.0 | -2.7 | +6.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 25% | 32% | 23% | +4.8 | -6.0 | +7.9 | -6.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 1,000 from Satoshi Fujisaki | 24% | 21% | 37% | 17% | -9.7 | -0.5 | +11.8 | -1.6 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 7,800 | 15% | 19% | 51% | 15% | -8.7 | +27.8 | -11.4 | -7.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Satoshi Fujisaki | 9% | 42% | 37% | 12% | -29.8 | -10.1 | +37.0 | +3.0 |
| South 3 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 14% | 81% | 5% | -3.7 | -9.8 | +20.2 | -6.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Satoshi Fujisaki ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 1% | 98% | 1% | +14.8 | -13.2 | 0.0 | -1.6 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -10.9 | +14.0 | -0.6 | -2.5 |