Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
3/5 Game 1
Sawazaki Makoto finished 1st (+73.5pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Sawazaki Makoto ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki, which moved Sawazaki Makoto's expected points by +22.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -12.1 | -5.4 | +21.9 | -4.4 |
| East 2 | Sawazaki Makoto ron 5,200 from Sasaki Hisato | 17% | 20% | 41% | 22% | +0.1 | -15.8 | +15.4 | +0.3 |
| East 3 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 6,000 | 14% | 11% | 55% | 20% | -4.7 | -4.2 | +13.9 | -5.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 10% | 7% | 69% | 15% | +2.0 | +1.9 | +22.8 | -26.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 5% | 3% | 89% | 3% | +9.9 | -1.1 | -0.7 | -8.1 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 1,500 from Sasaki Hisato | 6% | 2% | 90% | 2% | +0.3 | -2.8 | +0.3 | +2.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 5% | 2% | 91% | 2% | +2.6 | -3.1 | -1.7 | +2.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 5,200 | 7% | 2% | 89% | 2% | -4.7 | +16.4 | -1.0 | -10.7 |
| South 1 | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,300 from Takizawa Kazunori | 6% | 4% | 90% | 1% | -5.1 | +3.1 | +2.9 | -0.8 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Takizawa Kazunori | 1% | 3% | 96% | 0% | -7.5 | -1.9 | +0.7 | +8.7 |
| South 3 | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -18.8 | +20.2 | -0.6 | -0.8 |
| South 4 | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | +6.5 | +3.8 | +0.1 | -10.4 |