Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
3/5 Game 1
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+73.5pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +24.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -13.5 | -5.6 | +22.1 | -3.0 |
| East 2 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 5,200 from Hisato Sasaki | 17% | 21% | 40% | 22% | +0.6 | -14.4 | +15.1 | -1.3 |
| East 3 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 6,000 | 15% | 11% | 55% | 19% | -6.3 | -4.6 | +13.8 | -2.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 9% | 8% | 69% | 15% | +2.2 | +1.4 | +24.2 | -27.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 5% | 3% | 89% | 2% | +9.6 | +0.2 | -1.3 | -8.5 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,500 from Hisato Sasaki | 5% | 3% | 90% | 2% | +0.1 | -3.6 | +0.5 | +3.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 2% | 91% | 2% | +1.8 | -2.5 | -1.4 | +2.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 5,200 | 5% | 3% | 90% | 2% | -3.4 | +16.3 | -0.9 | -12.0 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,300 from Kazunori Takizawa | 5% | 4% | 91% | 1% | -3.8 | +2.4 | +2.0 | -0.5 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Kazunori Takizawa | 1% | 3% | 96% | 0% | -8.4 | -2.2 | +1.4 | +9.3 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -19.3 | +20.8 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | +6.6 | +3.3 | 0.0 | -9.9 |