Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
3/6 Game 1
Go Kobayashi finished 1st (+56.6pt). The game was decided in South 2, 3 honba: Go Kobayashi tsumo 7,800, which moved Go Kobayashi's expected points by +28.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 16,000 | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -21.2 | -10.0 | -10.8 | +42.0 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 15% | 15% | 59% | -1.4 | +5.6 | -2.9 | -1.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 9% | 19% | 15% | 57% | -1.4 | -4.3 | +16.6 | -10.9 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 17% | 25% | 48% | -4.4 | -6.3 | -17.1 | +27.9 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 8% | 9% | 78% | -4.0 | -1.8 | +1.6 | +4.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 8% | 8% | 81% | -9.0 | -9.4 | +34.6 | -16.1 |
| South 1 | Go Kobayashi ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 2% | 5% | 31% | 62% | -4.5 | +8.4 | +2.2 | -6.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 8% | 35% | 56% | +0.4 | +3.5 | +4.0 | -7.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 10% | 43% | 45% | -3.8 | +9.1 | -2.1 | -3.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 3,000 | 1% | 15% | 42% | 42% | -2.6 | +10.5 | -2.9 | -5.0 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 7,800 | 1% | 21% | 40% | 39% | -4.2 | +28.6 | -12.7 | -11.6 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 50% | 25% | 25% | +15.4 | +7.1 | +2.8 | -25.3 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,300 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 1% | 66% | 23% | 10% | -5.8 | +6.0 | -3.0 | +2.7 |
| South 4 | Aiko Hinata ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 78% | 13% | 9% | -2.3 | +9.9 | +1.0 | -8.6 |