Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
3/9 Game 1
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+61.2pt). The game was decided in South 1: Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +34.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 6,000 | 25% | 26% | 23% | 26% | +17.4 | -5.7 | -5.0 | -6.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 3,000 | 38% | 22% | 20% | 20% | +8.2 | -4.5 | -0.6 | -3.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Murakami Jun tsumo 4,000 | 44% | 18% | 20% | 18% | -6.3 | -5.3 | -5.1 | +16.7 |
| East 2 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 38% | 16% | 17% | 29% | -6.0 | -19.7 | +33.1 | -7.5 |
| East 3 | Murakami Jun tsumo 8,000 | 31% | 7% | 40% | 22% | -5.1 | -6.0 | -13.7 | +24.7 |
| East 4 | Takamiya Mari ron 1,300 from Katsumata Kenji | 26% | 5% | 26% | 43% | +3.1 | +1.1 | -3.9 | -0.3 |
| South 1 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 5% | 23% | 43% | +34.8 | -8.8 | -11.4 | -14.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 65% | 2% | 12% | 21% | +5.5 | -0.3 | -2.0 | -3.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 6,400 | 71% | 2% | 10% | 18% | -12.3 | -4.9 | +24.1 | -6.9 |
| South 2 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 57% | 2% | 25% | 16% | -6.0 | +21.7 | -7.8 | -8.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 56% | 7% | 23% | 15% | -5.0 | -21.6 | +27.3 | -0.7 |
| South 3 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 42% | 0% | 48% | 11% | +16.3 | +9.9 | -24.7 | -1.5 |
| South 4 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 5,200 | 77% | 0% | 13% | 10% | +16.8 | -4.0 | -3.0 | -9.8 |