Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
3/9 Game 1
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+61.2pt). The game was decided in South 1: Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +33.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 6,000 | 24% | 24% | 24% | 28% | +15.7 | -4.1 | -4.3 | -7.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 3,000 | 35% | 22% | 22% | 21% | +12.4 | -8.1 | -2.7 | -1.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Jun Murakami tsumo 4,000 | 46% | 17% | 18% | 19% | -9.3 | -2.2 | -2.4 | +13.9 |
| East 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 37% | 16% | 19% | 29% | -5.4 | -18.6 | +30.0 | -5.9 |
| East 3 | Jun Murakami tsumo 8,000 | 32% | 8% | 37% | 23% | -4.8 | -8.2 | -12.0 | +25.0 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya ron 1,300 from Kenji Katsumata | 26% | 5% | 26% | 43% | +5.4 | -0.1 | -4.1 | -1.2 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 31% | 5% | 23% | 42% | +33.2 | -6.5 | -12.0 | -14.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 66% | 2% | 10% | 21% | +4.6 | -1.4 | -0.4 | -2.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,400 | 71% | 2% | 10% | 17% | -12.6 | -4.3 | +23.9 | -6.9 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 57% | 1% | 26% | 15% | -5.5 | +20.8 | -8.3 | -7.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 55% | 6% | 23% | 16% | -2.8 | -21.4 | +26.3 | -2.1 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 44% | 0% | 46% | 10% | +14.5 | +10.4 | -24.1 | -0.7 |
| South 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 5,200 | 76% | 0% | 13% | 11% | +16.8 | -4.2 | -2.5 | -10.2 |