Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/3 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+61.9pt). The game was decided in South 3: Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +23.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +5.8 | -3.8 | -0.7 | -1.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 4,000 | 30% | 24% | 23% | 24% | -6.8 | -2.1 | -3.4 | +12.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 21% | 23% | 32% | -5.4 | +5.5 | -4.5 | +4.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 21% | 24% | 19% | 36% | -15.1 | -3.2 | +0.7 | +17.7 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 19% | 18% | 51% | -3.2 | -1.8 | -4.8 | +9.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 17% | 12% | 63% | -5.0 | -7.6 | +23.3 | -10.7 |
| South 1 | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,300 from Makoto Sawazaki | 8% | 14% | 26% | 52% | -6.7 | -0.3 | -3.9 | +10.9 |
| South 2 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 11% | 20% | 67% | -6.2 | -9.8 | +16.6 | -0.6 |
| South 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 1% | 3% | 30% | 66% | -2.5 | +2.4 | -23.2 | +23.3 |
| South 4 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -5.6 | -1.6 | +10.9 | -3.8 |