Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/3 Game 2
Sawazaki Makoto finished 1st (+57.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 12,000, which moved Sawazaki Makoto's expected points by +44.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Ishibashi Nobuhiro 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Ishibashi Nobuhiro Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 6,000 | 27% | 25% | 25% | 23% | +14.9 | -4.3 | -5.6 | -5.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 1,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 39% | 20% | 21% | 21% | -0.9 | 0.0 | +1.3 | -0.3 |
| East 2 | Draw | 37% | 20% | 22% | 21% | -1.4 | -1.8 | -3.3 | +6.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 36% | 21% | 20% | 24% | +0.2 | -3.9 | -4.1 | +7.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Win | 37% | 17% | 16% | 30% | -7.2 | -0.4 | -1.8 | +9.4 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Draw | 30% | 16% | 16% | 39% | +7.8 | -1.8 | -0.2 | -5.8 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro tsumo 12,000 | 37% | 16% | 15% | 31% | -22.8 | +45.4 | -12.6 | -10.0 |
| South 2 | Draw | 16% | 53% | 9% | 22% | -6.4 | +5.4 | -3.4 | +4.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 59% | 8% | 23% | -8.1 | -8.1 | +21.9 | -5.7 |
| South 3 | Sawazaki Makoto ron 3,900 from Hagiwara Masato | 9% | 54% | 17% | 21% | -3.1 | +8.4 | -21.2 | +15.8 |
| South 4 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 69% | 3% | 25% | -11.2 | -30.6 | -2.8 | +44.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 96% | -12.0 | -1.0 | +16.2 | -3.3 |