Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/3 Game 2
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+57.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 12,000, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +44.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 6,000 | 26% | 24% | 23% | 27% | +19.7 | -6.9 | -5.2 | -7.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 1,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 40% | 19% | 21% | 20% | -1.8 | +3.9 | +1.1 | -3.2 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 38% | 21% | 22% | 19% | -0.2 | -4.5 | -2.4 | +7.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 39% | 18% | 19% | 24% | -1.4 | -2.1 | -4.9 | +8.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 1,500 from Hisato Sasaki | 37% | 18% | 16% | 29% | -9.9 | +0.5 | -0.1 | +9.6 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 17% | 16% | 38% | +10.7 | -4.5 | -3.3 | -3.0 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 12,000 | 38% | 14% | 15% | 33% | -24.9 | +49.4 | -12.1 | -12.3 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 57% | 8% | 21% | -3.9 | +1.7 | -2.3 | +4.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 59% | 7% | 23% | -10.5 | -7.3 | +24.1 | -6.3 |
| South 3 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 3,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 9% | 52% | 18% | 21% | -1.7 | +9.2 | -24.2 | +16.7 |
| South 4 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 70% | 2% | 25% | -11.5 | -30.9 | -2.1 | +44.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 96% | -12.1 | -1.2 | +16.5 | -3.2 |