Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/4 Game 1
Seiichi Kondo finished 1st (+53.2pt). The game was decided in South 1: Seiichi Kondo tsumo 18,000, which moved Seiichi Kondo's expected points by +48.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Taro Suzuki ron 1,000 from Aki Nikaido | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -1.8 | +0.3 | +4.5 | -3.0 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 5,200 | 24% | 25% | 28% | 23% | -3.0 | -9.9 | -3.2 | +16.0 |
| East 3 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 6,000 | 22% | 18% | 25% | 35% | -7.0 | -5.2 | +17.1 | -5.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 5,200 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 17% | 15% | 38% | 30% | +14.9 | -14.0 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| East 4 | Taro Suzuki ron 5,200 from Aki Nikaido | 25% | 9% | 37% | 29% | -0.1 | -1.4 | +21.9 | -20.4 |
| South 1 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 18,000 | 21% | 7% | 60% | 13% | +48.3 | -10.2 | -24.5 | -13.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 72% | 3% | 21% | 5% | -0.4 | +3.8 | -1.0 | -2.5 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,900 from Taro Suzuki | 74% | 3% | 20% | 4% | +0.7 | +8.5 | -8.2 | -1.0 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 77% | 5% | 14% | 4% | -1.5 | +6.9 | -2.3 | -3.1 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 75% | 7% | 14% | 4% | +4.2 | -20.0 | -0.6 | +16.4 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 2,700 | 84% | 1% | 10% | 6% | +4.3 | +6.0 | -6.1 | -4.3 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki | 95% | 0% | 1% | 4% | -3.0 | +6.8 | -41.9 | +38.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 86% | 0% | 0% | 14% | -3.0 | -15.9 | +24.6 | -5.7 |