Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/8 Game 2
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+57.3pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 7,800, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +26.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -15.6 | -5.9 | +25.7 | -4.2 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000 | 14% | 20% | 44% | 22% | -13.9 | +46.7 | -16.9 | -15.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 7% | 56% | 25% | 12% | +2.0 | -6.4 | 0.0 | +4.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 7,800 | 9% | 51% | 27% | 13% | -8.6 | -10.4 | +26.3 | -7.3 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 9,600 from Sonoda Ken | 6% | 36% | 49% | 9% | -18.6 | -4.9 | +22.2 | +1.3 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 1% | 23% | 69% | 7% | +15.5 | +4.7 | -18.0 | -2.2 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken ron 5,200 from Setokuma Naoki | 4% | 34% | 54% | 8% | +11.1 | -13.6 | +6.0 | -3.6 |
| South 1 | Sonoda Ken ron 2,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 7% | 22% | 65% | 6% | +7.0 | -7.3 | +1.1 | -0.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 3,900 from Sonoda Ken | 8% | 17% | 67% | 7% | -18.4 | -0.7 | +4.3 | +14.7 |
| South 2 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 14% | 76% | 9% | +26.3 | -18.4 | +0.8 | -8.8 |
| South 3 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 3,000 | 6% | 5% | 81% | 8% | -3.0 | -1.7 | +6.9 | -2.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 3,900 from Kayamori Sayaka | 3% | 2% | 90% | 5% | -9.7 | -3.4 | -6.1 | +19.2 |
| South 4 | Draw | 1% | 1% | 88% | 10% | +8.3 | -10.0 | -3.7 | +5.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,000 from Hinata Aiko | 4% | 1% | 83% | 12% | -2.1 | -9.5 | +9.1 | +2.6 |