Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/8 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+57.3pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 7,800, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +27.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -15.8 | -4.2 | +23.3 | -3.3 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000 | 14% | 20% | 43% | 23% | -14.2 | +45.5 | -15.8 | -15.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 57% | 26% | 11% | +2.4 | -5.5 | +0.9 | +2.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 7,800 | 9% | 53% | 26% | 13% | -8.2 | -12.6 | +27.8 | -7.1 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 9,600 from Ken Sonoda | 5% | 35% | 52% | 8% | -18.3 | -2.9 | +19.8 | +1.4 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 1% | 24% | 69% | 6% | +14.4 | +4.9 | -18.6 | -0.8 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 4% | 35% | 53% | 8% | +10.6 | -13.4 | +6.1 | -3.3 |
| South 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 2,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 5% | 24% | 65% | 6% | +8.8 | -8.7 | +3.1 | -3.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 8% | 18% | 69% | 5% | -18.5 | +0.1 | +2.4 | +16.0 |
| South 2 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 16% | 73% | 9% | +26.8 | -18.2 | +0.3 | -8.9 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 3,000 | 7% | 5% | 80% | 8% | -3.5 | -2.4 | +7.2 | -1.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 3,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 3% | 3% | 89% | 5% | -9.6 | -3.6 | -5.5 | +18.7 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 1% | 88% | 11% | +8.2 | -10.1 | -3.9 | +5.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,000 from Aiko Hinata | 4% | 1% | 82% | 13% | -2.4 | -9.3 | +9.6 | +2.1 |