Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/10 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+73.0pt). The game was decided in South 3: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +40.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -18.1 | -7.7 | -8.6 | +34.4 |
| East 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 7,700 from Taro Suzuki | 12% | 18% | 17% | 53% | -15.8 | +18.7 | +0.3 | -3.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 29% | 16% | 48% | +2.8 | +2.2 | -2.4 | -2.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,800 from Taro Suzuki | 8% | 30% | 16% | 46% | -14.9 | +19.1 | +0.2 | -4.4 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 45% | 14% | 38% | -1.3 | +5.3 | -1.4 | -2.6 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,900 | 3% | 51% | 13% | 33% | -1.3 | +13.0 | -6.4 | -5.3 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 2% | 64% | 9% | 25% | -1.6 | -8.2 | +7.9 | +1.9 |
| East 3 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 56% | 12% | 29% | +16.8 | +1.0 | -15.1 | -2.6 |
| East 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 5% | 61% | 6% | 28% | +0.5 | -6.6 | -22.3 | +28.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 44% | 1% | 53% | +0.8 | -5.2 | -0.7 | +5.1 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,900 from Taro Suzuki | 3% | 36% | 2% | 59% | -8.7 | -3.2 | +0.8 | +11.1 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 1% | 26% | 1% | 72% | +17.7 | +0.3 | -17.0 | -1.0 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 26% | 0% | 71% | +2.3 | -2.2 | +2.0 | -2.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 25% | 1% | 70% | -4.2 | -0.9 | +2.5 | +2.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 1,100 | 1% | 22% | 1% | 76% | +4.4 | -5.3 | -1.7 | +2.5 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 14% | 1% | 85% | -3.0 | +40.1 | -9.8 | -27.3 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 0% | 77% | 0% | 23% | 0.0 | +12.6 | +0.6 | -13.2 |