Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/11 Game 2
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+59.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Makoto Sawazaki ron 5,200 from Saki Kurosawa, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +34.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 23% | 25% | 27% | -17.5 | -5.6 | +30.8 | -7.7 |
| East 2 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 7,700 from Mari Takamiya | 12% | 19% | 49% | 19% | -17.8 | +21.1 | -0.6 | -2.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 32% | 46% | 16% | -2.3 | -4.3 | +8.8 | -2.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 6,400 from Sayaka Kayamori | 5% | 24% | 56% | 14% | +0.3 | +18.3 | -2.2 | -16.4 |
| East 4 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 4% | 39% | 50% | 7% | -1.6 | +23.3 | -20.5 | -1.2 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 70% | 23% | 4% | -15.8 | -2.8 | -11.8 | +30.4 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 70% | 15% | 14% | -1.8 | +2.2 | +3.7 | -4.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 0% | 72% | 17% | 11% | -0.7 | -26.4 | +28.5 | -1.4 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 34% | 53% | 13% | +8.9 | 0.0 | -3.3 | -5.5 |
| South 4 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 5,200 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 35% | 55% | 11% | -1.2 | +34.7 | -25.0 | -8.5 |