Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/14 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+63.7pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +31.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | -7.9 | -1.2 | +11.5 | -2.4 |
| East 2 | Ken Sonoda ron 2,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 20% | 24% | 34% | 22% | -4.8 | -2.7 | +6.9 | +0.6 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 16% | 20% | 41% | 23% | -19.9 | +23.2 | -1.7 | -1.5 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 7,800 | 7% | 37% | 36% | 20% | -5.1 | -8.3 | -7.8 | +21.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 31% | 29% | 35% | -3.1 | +8.1 | -2.7 | -2.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 5% | 37% | 27% | 32% | -4.3 | -28.1 | +0.5 | +31.8 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 11% | 19% | 69% | +0.2 | -7.5 | +6.9 | +0.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 5% | 22% | 72% | -6.7 | +28.6 | -23.1 | +1.2 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 14% | 7% | 79% | -3.8 | -9.3 | -7.3 | +20.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 99% | +7.9 | +2.2 | -5.1 | -4.9 |