Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/17 Game 2
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+54.1pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Masato Hagiwara tsumo 16,000, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +46.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | +29.7 | -1.3 | -0.6 | -27.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,200 from Masato Hagiwara | 48% | 21% | 23% | 9% | +0.4 | -16.1 | +0.6 | +15.2 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 3,000 | 50% | 14% | 21% | 15% | -2.6 | +8.9 | -4.1 | -2.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 2,700 | 47% | 18% | 20% | 15% | 0.0 | -7.2 | +9.0 | -1.8 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 49% | 13% | 25% | 13% | +2.6 | -4.3 | +4.6 | -2.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 16,000 | 50% | 10% | 28% | 13% | -10.5 | +46.1 | -23.6 | -11.9 |
| East 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 36% | 43% | 12% | 9% | +2.0 | +5.0 | -1.5 | -5.5 |
| South 1 | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 37% | 48% | 10% | 4% | -6.3 | +10.9 | +1.2 | -5.8 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 62% | 9% | 3% | -2.5 | -1.5 | +3.3 | +0.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 64% | 11% | 3% | -18.3 | -19.6 | +46.7 | -8.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 4,000 | 12% | 34% | 52% | 2% | +16.6 | -4.8 | -8.3 | -3.4 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,000 from Ken Sonoda | 28% | 30% | 40% | 2% | -20.0 | +37.7 | -14.7 | -3.0 |