Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/18 Game 1
Aiko Hinata finished 1st (+63.7pt). The game was decided in South 2, 2 honba: Aiko Hinata tsumo 18,000, which moved Aiko Hinata's expected points by +33.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -0.3 | +7.1 | -4.1 | -2.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 30% | 21% | 24% | +2.2 | -5.1 | +6.5 | -3.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 26% | 26% | 21% | -15.6 | -6.8 | +28.4 | -6.1 |
| East 2 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 1,000 from Aiko Hinata | 15% | 20% | 48% | 17% | +1.7 | -4.6 | +0.7 | +2.2 |
| East 3 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 17% | 50% | 16% | -10.6 | -9.7 | +28.6 | -8.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 18,000 | 6% | 7% | 78% | 9% | -7.9 | -9.2 | +26.5 | -9.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 1% | 96% | 2% | -2.4 | +1.4 | -3.2 | +4.3 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 1% | 95% | 2% | -8.1 | +29.6 | -3.3 | -18.2 |
| South 1 | Yuumi Uotani ron 2,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 1% | 4% | 94% | 1% | +3.6 | -0.9 | +0.5 | -3.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 4% | 95% | 0% | -4.6 | +3.9 | -0.8 | +1.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 4% | 95% | 0% | -8.1 | +33.9 | -17.2 | -8.6 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 6,400 | 0% | 30% | 70% | 0% | -1.3 | -14.4 | +17.7 | -2.0 |
| South 3 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 0% | 5% | 95% | 0% | -8.0 | +2.2 | -11.7 | +17.5 |
| South 4 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 9,600 from Makoto Sawazaki | 0% | 10% | 89% | 0% | -2.8 | +20.1 | -31.1 | +13.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 7,700 from Makoto Sawazaki | 0% | 60% | 38% | 2% | -0.3 | +10.3 | -21.2 | +11.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 5,200 from Makoto Sawazaki | 0% | 86% | 9% | 5% | +5.8 | +6.3 | -6.4 | -5.7 |