Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/25 Game 1
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+64.2pt). The game was decided in South 4, 3 honba: Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 18,000, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +68.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 3,000 | 26% | 26% | 25% | 24% | +8.3 | -3.0 | -0.8 | -4.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 3,000 | 31% | 24% | 24% | 22% | +9.0 | -3.0 | -4.4 | -1.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 38% | 21% | 20% | 20% | -12.0 | -7.1 | +24.2 | -5.1 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 28% | 16% | 39% | 17% | -7.4 | -10.8 | +23.1 | -4.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 9% | 60% | 12% | -2.8 | +1.3 | -4.3 | +5.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 18% | 10% | 57% | 15% | +24.2 | -0.9 | +1.9 | -25.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 7% | 56% | 4% | +10.0 | -2.1 | -4.4 | -3.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 12,000 | 44% | 5% | 49% | 2% | +29.2 | -8.1 | -17.0 | -4.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,000 from Jun Murakami | 78% | 2% | 18% | 1% | -0.7 | -3.5 | +3.5 | +0.7 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 78% | 2% | 19% | 1% | -21.7 | -2.8 | +25.1 | -0.5 |
| South 3 | Jun Murakami tsumo 1,500 | 43% | 0% | 56% | 1% | -1.7 | +6.1 | +0.5 | -4.9 |
| South 4 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 38% | 0% | 62% | 1% | +20.1 | -12.3 | -35.7 | +27.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 89% | 0% | 7% | 4% | -2.5 | -3.4 | +1.5 | +4.4 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 4,800 from Jun Murakami | 84% | 0% | 11% | 5% | -1.6 | -6.8 | -2.3 | +10.7 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 18,000 | 82% | 0% | 9% | 9% | -37.9 | -6.8 | -23.6 | +68.3 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Jun Murakami ron 1,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 8% | 0% | 0% | 92% | -0.7 | +2.4 | -3.8 | +2.0 |