Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/25 Game 1
Sawazaki Makoto finished 1st (+64.2pt). The game was decided in South 4, 3 honba: Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 18,000, which moved Sawazaki Makoto's expected points by +66.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 3,000 | 25% | 25% | 27% | 23% | +9.9 | -2.8 | -5.7 | -1.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 3,000 | 32% | 24% | 22% | 22% | +7.6 | -1.9 | -1.6 | -4.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000 | 37% | 21% | 22% | 20% | -11.8 | -6.0 | +22.6 | -4.7 |
| East 2 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000 | 28% | 19% | 36% | 17% | -6.1 | -12.8 | +24.3 | -5.4 |
| East 3 | Draw | 19% | 9% | 60% | 12% | -3.5 | +1.1 | -2.8 | +5.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 8,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 16% | 9% | 60% | 15% | +25.8 | +0.6 | -1.5 | -24.9 |
| South 1 | Draw | 34% | 8% | 54% | 4% | +8.0 | -3.0 | -3.6 | -1.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 12,000 | 44% | 6% | 47% | 3% | +28.7 | -8.3 | -14.2 | -6.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 1,000 from Murakami Jun | 76% | 2% | 21% | 1% | +1.5 | -2.2 | +0.8 | -0.2 |
| South 2 | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 80% | 2% | 17% | 1% | -23.4 | -3.3 | +26.2 | +0.4 |
| South 3 | Murakami Jun tsumo 1,500 | 42% | 0% | 57% | 1% | -1.3 | +5.2 | +0.3 | -4.1 |
| South 4 | Sawazaki Makoto ron 12,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 38% | 0% | 62% | 1% | +20.6 | -12.9 | -35.7 | +28.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 89% | 0% | 7% | 4% | -4.4 | -2.3 | +1.4 | +5.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 4,800 from Murakami Jun | 83% | 0% | 11% | 7% | -1.1 | -7.3 | -2.1 | +10.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 18,000 | 80% | 0% | 10% | 10% | -36.3 | -6.4 | -23.5 | +66.2 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Murakami Jun ron 1,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 9% | 0% | 1% | 90% | -1.4 | +2.4 | -4.1 | +3.1 |