Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/26 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+75.2pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 32,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +80.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -2.4 | -3.3 | -2.3 | +8.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,900 from Taro Suzuki | 23% | 23% | 24% | 31% | -9.1 | +12.0 | +0.6 | -3.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 4,000 | 18% | 31% | 24% | 27% | -5.1 | -9.4 | -3.8 | +18.2 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 15% | 23% | 20% | 42% | -1.0 | -0.4 | -9.9 | +11.3 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,000 | 13% | 20% | 14% | 53% | -4.0 | -6.3 | -4.2 | +14.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 14% | 9% | 69% | -8.2 | -9.1 | -5.8 | +23.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 32,000 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 90% | -18.1 | -18.7 | +80.7 | -43.9 |
| South 1 | Taro Suzuki ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 1% | 2% | 70% | 27% | +23.3 | -22.0 | -1.4 | +0.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 1% | 67% | 29% | +3.5 | +0.4 | -1.5 | -2.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 1% | 67% | 28% | -11.3 | -3.7 | +24.3 | -9.3 |
| South 2 | Taro Suzuki ron 1,300 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 0% | 92% | 8% | +4.4 | -6.1 | +2.2 | -0.5 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | -12.1 | +12.1 | -0.6 | +0.6 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 97% | 3% | -3.6 | -4.5 | -8.5 | +16.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 7,700 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 0% | 86% | 14% | +2.9 | -10.6 | -5.1 | +12.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 0% | 73% | 27% | +5.9 | -2.2 | +10.2 | -13.9 |