Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/26 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+75.2pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 32,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +80.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -3.4 | -3.3 | -2.0 | +8.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,900 from Suzuki Taro | 22% | 23% | 24% | 31% | -9.2 | +11.6 | +0.8 | -3.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 4,000 | 16% | 31% | 24% | 28% | -4.0 | -10.9 | -3.1 | +17.9 |
| East 3 | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 14% | 22% | 20% | 44% | -2.1 | +0.5 | -8.5 | +10.1 |
| East 4 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 6,000 | 13% | 19% | 13% | 55% | -3.2 | -4.9 | -4.8 | +12.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 8% | 14% | 10% | 68% | -6.0 | -10.9 | -8.0 | +24.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 32,000 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 90% | -20.6 | -17.2 | +80.2 | -42.4 |
| South 1 | Suzuki Taro ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 1% | 3% | 66% | 30% | +23.3 | -22.7 | +1.3 | -1.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 3% | 1% | 69% | 28% | +4.0 | +0.4 | -2.1 | -2.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 1% | 67% | 27% | -11.8 | -4.1 | +25.2 | -9.3 |
| South 2 | Suzuki Taro ron 1,300 from Kayamori Sayaka | 0% | 0% | 93% | 7% | +5.5 | -6.7 | +0.7 | +0.5 |
| South 3 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Suzuki Taro | 0% | 0% | 95% | 5% | -12.4 | +12.7 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 97% | 3% | -4.1 | -3.9 | -8.7 | +16.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 7,700 from Kayamori Sayaka | 0% | 0% | 85% | 15% | +3.1 | -11.2 | -5.3 | +13.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Suzuki Taro tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 0% | 72% | 28% | +6.1 | -2.2 | +10.7 | -14.6 |