Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/31 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+50.0pt). The game was decided in South 1: Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +25.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 6,000 | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | +15.6 | -5.4 | -5.6 | -4.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 7,700 from Akina Mizuhara | 36% | 22% | 20% | 22% | +20.9 | -1.9 | -19.2 | +0.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 52% | 18% | 11% | 19% | -24.8 | +2.0 | +1.1 | +21.8 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 31% | 21% | 12% | 36% | +6.6 | -7.9 | -1.3 | +2.7 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 1,500 | 37% | 14% | 12% | 37% | +9.3 | -1.2 | -6.6 | -1.4 |
| East 4 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 1,300 from Sayaka Kayamori | 46% | 13% | 7% | 34% | -7.8 | +7.7 | -0.1 | +0.2 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 38% | 18% | 8% | 36% | -3.1 | -22.2 | +0.2 | +25.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 6% | 5% | 63% | -0.8 | -9.4 | +7.4 | +2.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 24% | 1% | 6% | 70% | +3.0 | +14.3 | -13.6 | -3.7 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 2% | 1% | 70% | -10.1 | -19.3 | +21.7 | +7.6 |