Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
10/31 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+50.0pt). The game was decided in South 1: Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Sawazaki Makoto, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +24.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 6,000 | 26% | 24% | 23% | 26% | +13.7 | -5.5 | -2.7 | -5.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 7,700 from Mizuhara Akina | 35% | 21% | 23% | 21% | +18.9 | +1.1 | -18.7 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 52% | 19% | 11% | 18% | -21.9 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +21.8 |
| East 2 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 32% | 21% | 12% | 35% | +5.2 | -7.1 | -2.1 | +4.0 |
| East 3 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 1,500 | 35% | 15% | 12% | 38% | +8.2 | -2.0 | -4.4 | -1.7 |
| East 4 | Sawazaki Makoto ron 1,300 from Kayamori Sayaka | 43% | 13% | 8% | 36% | -4.8 | +7.1 | -2.2 | -0.1 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 40% | 17% | 8% | 36% | -4.0 | -21.9 | +1.2 | +24.7 |
| South 2 | Draw | 27% | 5% | 4% | 63% | -0.8 | -8.4 | +5.9 | +3.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 23% | 1% | 6% | 70% | +1.6 | +13.4 | -12.7 | -2.3 |
| South 4 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 2% | 1% | 72% | -9.1 | -18.8 | +21.8 | +6.1 |