Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/1 Game 2
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+64.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +50.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -13.4 | -4.6 | -7.8 | +25.8 |
| East 2 | Ken Sonoda ron 2,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 15% | 21% | 18% | 46% | -3.1 | +3.4 | +0.2 | -0.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 23% | 18% | 46% | +5.6 | -4.9 | +1.7 | -2.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 5,200 | 17% | 18% | 21% | 44% | +22.0 | -4.4 | -14.4 | -3.3 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 31% | 17% | 12% | 40% | -34.1 | +1.0 | +1.6 | +31.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 8% | 13% | 8% | 72% | -4.4 | -3.7 | +30.2 | -22.1 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 14% | 29% | 49% | +1.6 | +4.6 | +0.7 | -6.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 17% | 31% | 43% | +5.0 | +2.9 | -3.5 | -4.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 13% | 19% | 30% | 38% | -6.1 | -3.3 | +36.8 | -27.3 |
| South 2 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 18,000 | 4% | 13% | 70% | 13% | -15.9 | +54.7 | -23.3 | -15.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 66% | 29% | 5% | +4.6 | +2.9 | -3.7 | -3.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 3,900 from Takaharu Ooi | 1% | 74% | 22% | 4% | -12.8 | +4.5 | -4.5 | +12.7 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 84% | 11% | 5% | -4.2 | -36.1 | +50.2 | -10.0 |