Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/4 Game 1
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+66.9pt). The game was decided in East 1: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +30.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +30.3 | -8.4 | -11.5 | -10.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 48% | 18% | 17% | 16% | -2.0 | -0.8 | +4.6 | -1.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 47% | 18% | 19% | 16% | -1.2 | -23.6 | +24.3 | +0.5 |
| East 3 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 44% | 6% | 34% | 16% | +1.1 | +21.1 | -0.8 | -21.3 |
| East 4 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 45% | 14% | 33% | 8% | +24.1 | -6.5 | -5.0 | -12.6 |
| South 1 | Draw | 72% | 7% | 19% | 2% | +3.7 | +3.6 | -5.4 | -1.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 18,000 | 76% | 7% | 15% | 2% | +29.8 | -10.5 | -12.4 | -6.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 97% | 1% | 2% | 0% | -8.0 | +25.2 | -10.2 | -7.1 |
| South 2 | Draw | 95% | 3% | 2% | 0% | -1.1 | +5.5 | -2.5 | -1.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 5,800 from Hagiwara Masato | 94% | 5% | 1% | 0% | -2.2 | +11.1 | -1.3 | -7.5 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 90% | 9% | 1% | 0% | -13.4 | +24.4 | -6.7 | -4.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Draw | 67% | 32% | 2% | 0% | +1.3 | -3.4 | +2.9 | -0.8 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Draw | 72% | 27% | 1% | 0% | -0.3 | +2.4 | -3.4 | +1.4 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Draw | 71% | 29% | 0% | 0% | -1.3 | -0.4 | +0.7 | +1.1 |
| South 4, 6 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 3,000 | 70% | 30% | 0% | 0% | -0.5 | -5.6 | -4.4 | +10.5 |
| South 4, 7 honba | Draw | 77% | 23% | 0% | 0% | +4.0 | -3.5 | -1.5 | +1.0 |
| South 4, 8 honba | Draw | 82% | 18% | 0% | 0% | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.8 | +4.0 |
| South 4, 9 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 6,000 | 82% | 17% | 0% | 0% | -1.0 | -6.5 | -13.7 | +21.2 |
| South 4, 10 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 3,900 from Hagiwara Masato | 87% | 12% | 0% | 1% | +5.0 | -4.1 | +20.9 | -21.9 |