Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/4 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+66.9pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +29.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | +29.1 | -9.8 | -8.8 | -10.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 49% | 17% | 17% | 17% | -2.9 | +2.2 | +4.6 | -4.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 46% | 18% | 20% | 15% | -0.2 | -25.1 | +23.8 | +1.5 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 44% | 7% | 35% | 15% | +2.1 | +19.6 | -3.1 | -18.6 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 47% | 13% | 32% | 8% | +23.7 | -4.3 | -5.3 | -14.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 74% | 7% | 18% | 2% | +2.3 | +2.7 | -3.1 | -1.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000 | 75% | 8% | 15% | 2% | +29.8 | -9.6 | -13.5 | -6.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 97% | 1% | 2% | 0% | -7.3 | +24.7 | -11.5 | -5.8 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 96% | 3% | 1% | 0% | -1.5 | +5.0 | -1.5 | -2.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,800 from Masato Hagiwara | 94% | 4% | 1% | 0% | -1.8 | +10.7 | -0.8 | -8.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 90% | 8% | 2% | 0% | -14.1 | +24.4 | -6.0 | -4.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 67% | 32% | 1% | 0% | +2.3 | -4.3 | +2.6 | -0.7 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 72% | 26% | 2% | 0% | -0.8 | +2.9 | -3.2 | +1.1 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 72% | 28% | 0% | 0% | -1.6 | -0.3 | +0.5 | +1.3 |
| South 4, 6 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 3,000 | 70% | 30% | 0% | 0% | -0.7 | -5.0 | -4.3 | +10.1 |
| South 4, 7 honba | Exhaustive draw | 76% | 24% | 0% | 0% | +4.4 | -4.1 | -1.5 | +1.2 |
| South 4, 8 honba | Exhaustive draw | 82% | 17% | 0% | 0% | -0.9 | -0.8 | -2.7 | +4.4 |
| South 4, 9 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 6,000 | 83% | 17% | 0% | 0% | -1.9 | -6.8 | -13.6 | +22.3 |
| South 4, 10 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 3,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 86% | 13% | 0% | 1% | +5.7 | -3.9 | +21.3 | -23.1 |