Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/7 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+72.0pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +39.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 26% | 23% | 24% | +4.8 | -2.0 | -2.4 | -0.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 5,200 | 30% | 23% | 24% | 24% | -9.1 | +16.0 | -2.7 | -4.3 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Jun Murakami | 22% | 35% | 21% | 21% | -21.7 | -3.4 | +24.2 | +0.9 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 11% | 30% | 39% | 20% | +0.7 | -6.1 | +4.8 | +0.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 26% | 41% | 21% | -4.4 | +25.1 | -13.3 | -7.4 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Jun Murakami | 8% | 48% | 28% | 16% | -10.6 | +1.0 | +15.5 | -5.9 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 46% | 40% | 9% | +2.0 | +1.8 | -8.1 | +4.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 6% | 49% | 33% | 12% | -0.8 | -9.6 | +39.7 | -29.4 |
| South 2 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 21% | 77% | 1% | -5.0 | +30.6 | -20.3 | -5.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 63% | 36% | 0% | +0.5 | +26.5 | -28.9 | +1.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 96% | 3% | 0% | -0.7 | +2.5 | -0.3 | -1.5 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 96% | 4% | 0% | -2.2 | -7.7 | +13.9 | -4.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 91% | 8% | 0% | -0.8 | -2.0 | +3.4 | -0.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 7,700 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 0% | 88% | 11% | 0% | +2.6 | -4.8 | +14.6 | -12.4 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,900 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 0% | 76% | 24% | 0% | +1.3 | -3.1 | +7.0 | -5.3 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 68% | 32% | 0% | -0.9 | +2.3 | -5.1 | +3.6 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 5,800 from Kazunori Takizawa | 0% | 76% | 24% | 0% | -2.8 | -25.8 | +18.3 | +10.3 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Jun Murakami tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 30% | 70% | 0% | +8.2 | -12.3 | +11.9 | -7.8 |