Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/7 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+72.0pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +38.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Ishibashi Nobuhiro 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Ishibashi Nobuhiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 26% | 24% | 23% | +6.4 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 5,200 | 31% | 24% | 23% | 22% | -11.2 | +18.1 | -4.4 | -2.5 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Murakami Jun | 23% | 36% | 20% | 21% | -18.8 | -4.6 | +24.0 | -0.6 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 12% | 31% | 37% | 21% | -3.1 | -7.1 | +8.9 | +1.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 25% | 45% | 20% | -5.0 | +26.2 | -15.4 | -5.7 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Murakami Jun | 8% | 49% | 27% | 16% | -8.3 | +0.7 | +14.0 | -6.5 |
| South 1 | Draw | 4% | 47% | 39% | 10% | +1.0 | +0.4 | -6.2 | +4.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 6% | 48% | 33% | 13% | -1.0 | -8.1 | +38.4 | -29.3 |
| South 2 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 23% | 75% | 2% | -4.6 | +29.8 | -20.2 | -4.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 63% | 35% | 1% | +0.9 | +25.8 | -27.1 | +0.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Draw | 0% | 94% | 5% | 0% | -0.4 | +2.6 | -1.1 | -1.0 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 96% | 4% | 0% | -1.9 | -7.3 | +14.0 | -4.8 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 91% | 9% | 0% | -1.1 | -1.3 | +2.9 | -0.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 7,700 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 0% | 89% | 11% | 0% | +2.2 | -6.3 | +16.3 | -12.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,900 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 0% | 74% | 26% | 0% | +0.6 | -3.7 | +6.6 | -3.5 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Draw | 0% | 66% | 34% | 0% | +0.2 | +3.6 | -5.4 | +1.6 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 5,800 from Takizawa Kazunori | 0% | 75% | 25% | 0% | -2.6 | -26.2 | +19.0 | +9.8 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Murakami Jun tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 28% | 72% | 0% | +7.7 | -11.4 | +10.6 | -6.9 |