Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/8 Game 1
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+57.7pt). The game was decided in East 3: Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +25.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +4.6 | -0.5 | -1.5 | -2.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 1,500 | 29% | 24% | 24% | 23% | -3.5 | -3.3 | -2.1 | +8.9 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 26% | 22% | 23% | 30% | +22.5 | -2.3 | +1.1 | -21.3 |
| East 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 44% | 18% | 22% | 17% | +25.4 | -21.8 | -4.0 | +0.4 |
| East 4 | Go Kobayashi ron 1,500 from Masato Hagiwara | 70% | 6% | 12% | 12% | -5.8 | -1.5 | -0.8 | +8.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Mari Takamiya | 64% | 7% | 13% | 16% | +1.5 | -13.6 | +15.4 | -3.4 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 66% | 3% | 20% | 11% | -22.2 | +18.3 | +3.5 | +0.4 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 44% | 10% | 31% | 16% | +25.2 | -14.8 | -6.4 | -4.0 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 76% | 1% | 14% | 9% | +2.2 | -6.6 | -20.8 | +25.2 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 84% | 0% | 2% | 14% | +6.9 | -1.9 | +27.6 | -32.6 |