Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2019-20 Regular Season

11/8 Game 2

Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+55.5pt). The game was decided in South 4: Katsumata Kenji ron 5,200 from Setokuma Naoki, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +46.7.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 3End● Katsumata Kenji● Mizuhara Akina● Setokuma Naoki● Sasaki Hisato0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Katsumata● Mizuhara● Setokuma● Sasaki
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMizuhara Akina
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Sasaki Hisato
1st-place chance
Mizuhara Akina
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
Sasaki Hisato
Expected pt change
East 1Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato25%26%24%25%-3.0-1.8+26.1-21.3
East 2Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji21%22%44%13%-3.5+34.4-32.0+1.1
East 2, 1 honbaKatsumata Kenji tsumo 2,00017%51%19%13%+0.7-4.1+5.8-2.3
East 3Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji19%48%22%11%+0.3+23.9-22.0-2.2
East 4Katsumata Kenji tsumo 5,20012%74%7%8%-2.9-0.1+14.9-11.9
South 1Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki10%76%11%3%-2.7-31.5-2.6+36.8
South 2Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,00016%42%18%24%-8.9-17.3+37.5-11.3
South 3Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki10%23%49%17%+0.6-16.5+15.6+0.3
South 3, 1 honbaSasaki Hisato tsumo 12,0007%9%71%14%-15.5-10.9-34.1+60.4
South 4Katsumata Kenji ron 5,200 from Setokuma Naoki2%3%11%84%+11.7-23.2+46.7-35.2

All 2019-20 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)