Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/8 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+55.5pt). The game was decided in South 4: Kenji Katsumata ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +47.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -5.6 | +0.5 | +27.5 | -22.5 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 19% | 24% | 45% | 12% | +0.7 | +35.8 | -35.6 | -1.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 2,000 | 19% | 53% | 16% | 11% | -4.0 | -6.9 | +11.4 | -0.5 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 16% | 48% | 24% | 12% | +3.1 | +24.1 | -23.6 | -3.5 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 5,200 | 14% | 72% | 7% | 7% | -4.0 | +0.6 | +14.2 | -10.8 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 10% | 76% | 10% | 4% | -2.5 | -31.7 | -3.6 | +37.8 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 43% | 17% | 25% | -8.4 | -16.7 | +39.0 | -13.9 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 10% | 24% | 51% | 16% | -1.7 | -15.8 | +14.7 | +2.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 9% | 71% | 14% | -12.9 | -12.7 | -34.4 | +60.0 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 1% | 3% | 11% | 85% | +10.8 | -22.5 | +47.5 | -35.7 |