Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/11 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+64.5pt). The game was decided in South 2, 2 honba: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +54.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -4.3 | +5.3 | -2.4 | +1.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,600 from Aki Nikaido | 22% | 29% | 23% | 27% | -7.5 | -2.3 | +8.3 | +1.6 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 26% | 29% | 27% | -4.0 | -5.5 | +5.1 | +4.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 22% | 31% | 30% | -2.8 | +9.6 | -5.9 | -1.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 14% | 29% | 26% | 31% | +17.2 | -1.7 | -13.0 | -2.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 29% | 19% | 28% | -4.1 | -0.8 | +7.8 | -3.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 28% | 24% | 27% | +5.4 | +5.6 | -6.1 | -5.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,000 | 24% | 32% | 21% | 23% | -21.5 | +54.5 | -16.0 | -17.1 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 5,200 | 1% | 91% | 4% | 4% | -6.0 | -6.8 | -6.6 | +19.3 |
| South 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 1% | 87% | 5% | 8% | +26.5 | +1.2 | -23.2 | -4.5 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,300 from Aki Nikaido | 1% | 92% | 0% | 7% | -15.2 | +5.2 | +0.3 | +9.8 |