Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/15 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+64.7pt). The game was decided in South 3: Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +25.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | +6.6 | -4.6 | -0.9 | -1.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura ron 4,800 from Naoki Setokuma | 30% | 22% | 24% | 25% | +14.9 | -9.8 | +0.5 | -5.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 41% | 17% | 23% | 19% | -0.9 | +18.7 | -22.3 | +4.5 |
| East 2 | Koshin Asakura ron 6,400 from Aiko Hinata | 39% | 26% | 12% | 22% | +16.0 | -2.4 | -14.7 | +1.1 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 6,400 from Naoki Setokuma | 54% | 20% | 6% | 20% | +3.3 | -16.6 | -2.2 | +15.6 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 6,000 | 57% | 10% | 4% | 28% | -7.8 | -3.9 | -3.9 | +15.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 46% | 9% | 3% | 43% | -6.0 | -2.0 | +3.6 | +4.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 5,200 | 39% | 9% | 4% | 48% | +1.8 | -7.1 | +11.1 | -5.8 |
| South 1 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 5,200 | 44% | 7% | 6% | 44% | -7.0 | -5.3 | +12.5 | -0.2 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 37% | 6% | 11% | 46% | -2.9 | +8.5 | -3.6 | -2.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 2,600 from Naoki Setokuma | 35% | 9% | 10% | 45% | +0.6 | -12.4 | -0.8 | +12.6 |
| South 3 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 30% | 2% | 8% | 61% | -11.3 | -2.9 | -11.0 | +25.2 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 6,400 from Aiko Hinata | 3% | 0% | 0% | 97% | +0.5 | +19.2 | -20.0 | +0.3 |