Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2019-20 Regular Season

11/18 Game 1

Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+61.8pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +38.2.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Katsumata Kenji● Takamiya Mari● Sonoda Ken● Kurosawa Saki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Katsumata● Takamiya● Sonoda● Kurosawa
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultKatsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Sonoda Ken
1st-place chance
Kurosawa Saki
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Sonoda Ken
Expected pt change
Kurosawa Saki
Expected pt change
East 1Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Kurosawa Saki25%25%25%25%+29.8-0.4-1.6-27.8
East 1, 1 honbaSonoda Ken ron 12,000 from Kurosawa Saki49%22%19%10%-5.3-2.7+30.5-22.6
East 2Draw38%18%41%3%-1.3+5.4-2.6-1.5
East 2, 1 honbaDraw37%21%39%3%+4.8-5.7+2.8-1.9
East 3, 2 honbaSonoda Ken ron 2,900 from Kurosawa Saki41%16%40%3%-3.4-1.8+11.6-6.4
East 3, 3 honbaDraw34%14%51%1%-0.4-0.4-2.6+3.4
East 4, 4 honbaDraw35%13%50%2%+3.2+0.2+2.6-6.0
South 1, 5 honbaKurosawa Saki ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken36%12%52%1%+7.4-0.3-20.7+13.7
South 2Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,00055%14%30%2%-14.9+36.2-15.0-6.3
South 2, 1 honbaSonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari33%46%19%1%0.0-30.7+30.3+0.4
South 3Sonoda Ken ron 2,900 from Takamiya Mari33%15%51%1%-1.4-9.4+11.3-0.6
South 3, 1 honbaKatsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken26%7%67%1%+38.2-2.0-36.6+0.3
South 4Takamiya Mari ron 12,000 from Kurosawa Saki90%2%7%1%+4.4+28.6-17.9-15.1

All 2019-20 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)