Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/18 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+61.8pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +38.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +27.7 | +0.2 | +0.3 | -28.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 46% | 22% | 21% | 10% | -3.8 | +0.2 | +28.2 | -24.5 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 38% | 19% | 40% | 3% | -0.9 | +3.4 | -2.0 | -0.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 38% | 21% | 38% | 3% | +3.7 | -5.7 | +4.4 | -2.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 2,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 40% | 16% | 42% | 3% | -1.7 | -1.4 | +9.8 | -6.7 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 13% | 51% | 1% | -1.7 | -1.2 | -1.7 | +4.6 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 34% | 13% | 51% | 2% | +4.0 | -1.6 | +3.2 | -5.6 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 36% | 11% | 53% | 1% | +7.8 | +0.5 | -21.0 | +12.6 |
| South 2 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 55% | 13% | 30% | 2% | -17.8 | +38.5 | -14.9 | -5.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 31% | 48% | 20% | 1% | +2.8 | -32.5 | +29.7 | 0.0 |
| South 3 | Ken Sonoda ron 2,900 from Mari Takamiya | 34% | 14% | 50% | 1% | -2.2 | -8.4 | +10.9 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 27% | 7% | 65% | 1% | +38.3 | -2.1 | -35.6 | -0.6 |
| South 4 | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 90% | 3% | 7% | 1% | +4.3 | +28.1 | -18.1 | -14.3 |