Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/19 Game 1
Mizuhara Akina finished 1st (+57.0pt). The game was decided in East 3, 5 honba: Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro, which moved Mizuhara Akina's expected points by +29.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mizuhara Akina ron 1,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -3.5 | +2.7 | +0.1 | +0.7 |
| East 2 | Draw | 23% | 27% | 24% | 26% | -0.8 | +5.8 | +0.2 | -5.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 21% | 30% | 26% | 22% | -2.6 | +5.4 | +1.5 | -4.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 7,700 from Okada Sayaka | 20% | 36% | 26% | 18% | -20.3 | +22.7 | -2.8 | +0.5 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Draw | 9% | 54% | 20% | 16% | +2.8 | -2.4 | -4.4 | +4.1 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Kondo Seiichi ron 12,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 10% | 52% | 19% | 19% | +0.8 | -36.9 | +36.4 | -0.4 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 11% | 19% | 50% | 20% | -1.5 | +29.4 | -2.5 | -25.4 |
| East 4 | Draw | 8% | 41% | 44% | 8% | -2.9 | -1.2 | -2.5 | +6.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 5,200 from Kondo Seiichi | 8% | 40% | 41% | 11% | +0.2 | +20.8 | -16.2 | -4.8 |
| South 1 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 18,000 | 6% | 66% | 21% | 6% | +48.7 | -17.4 | -15.6 | -15.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 5,200 | 36% | 45% | 17% | 3% | -10.8 | +20.3 | -7.5 | -2.1 |
| South 2 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 5,200 | 18% | 71% | 8% | 3% | +15.6 | -9.1 | -3.7 | -2.8 |
| South 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 35% | 57% | 7% | 1% | -1.8 | +2.4 | -13.3 | +12.7 |
| South 4 | Okada Sayaka ron 2,600 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 30% | 66% | 0% | 4% | -8.4 | +15.0 | +6.2 | -12.7 |