Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/19 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+57.0pt). The game was decided in East 3, 5 honba: Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +30.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -2.5 | +1.7 | +0.9 | 0.0 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 26% | 25% | 26% | -2.1 | +6.0 | -1.1 | -2.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 31% | 25% | 23% | -1.6 | +3.2 | +1.4 | -3.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 7,700 from Sayaka Okada | 20% | 33% | 25% | 22% | -22.4 | +26.7 | -1.5 | -2.9 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 57% | 20% | 16% | +3.1 | -4.2 | -5.1 | +6.3 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 12,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 9% | 53% | 18% | 20% | -0.4 | -37.4 | +38.5 | -0.7 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 9% | 20% | 51% | 21% | -0.3 | +30.0 | -4.1 | -25.6 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 42% | 43% | 8% | +0.5 | -0.1 | -2.7 | +2.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,200 from Seiichi Kondo | 8% | 43% | 40% | 8% | -2.6 | +19.2 | -14.9 | -1.7 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000 | 6% | 67% | 22% | 5% | +48.9 | -17.1 | -16.2 | -15.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 5,200 | 35% | 46% | 15% | 3% | -10.6 | +19.3 | -6.8 | -1.9 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 5,200 | 19% | 70% | 9% | 2% | +15.4 | -7.4 | -5.0 | -3.0 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 33% | 60% | 6% | 2% | -2.2 | +1.7 | -12.0 | +12.5 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 2,600 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 29% | 68% | 0% | 4% | -7.4 | +14.1 | +5.7 | -12.4 |