Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/21 Game 1
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+82.4pt). The game was decided in South 1, 8 honba: Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +46.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 26% | 25% | 25% | -13.3 | +20.1 | -3.2 | -3.6 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 42% | 23% | 21% | +1.9 | +4.6 | -4.2 | -2.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 45% | 20% | 19% | -5.6 | +5.3 | -3.2 | +3.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 50% | 16% | 21% | -2.3 | +4.6 | -2.7 | +0.4 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 1,500 from Naoki Setokuma | 11% | 53% | 15% | 21% | -6.3 | +11.2 | +0.4 | -5.4 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 65% | 14% | 14% | +0.3 | +4.1 | -4.9 | +0.5 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 69% | 11% | 13% | +28.2 | -12.8 | -9.0 | -6.3 |
| East 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,800 from Hisato Sasaki | 20% | 57% | 9% | 14% | +0.2 | +0.8 | +13.2 | -14.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Sho Shiratori | 20% | 57% | 13% | 9% | +0.3 | -6.9 | -3.2 | +9.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 53% | 12% | 12% | -1.7 | -2.5 | +3.7 | +0.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 24% | 50% | 13% | 13% | -2.1 | -4.6 | -30.9 | +37.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 42% | 4% | 35% | -3.4 | -4.9 | +1.3 | +7.1 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 37% | 4% | 42% | +5.7 | -4.6 | -3.3 | +2.2 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 7,700 from Akina Mizuhara | 22% | 32% | 3% | 43% | -5.3 | -4.3 | -12.4 | +22.1 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 21% | 1% | 65% | -2.9 | +5.8 | -2.0 | -0.9 |
| South 1, 6 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 3,000 | 10% | 24% | 1% | 66% | +13.1 | -5.5 | -2.3 | -5.3 |
| South 1, 7 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 7,700 from Hisato Sasaki | 18% | 22% | 1% | 59% | +33.9 | -1.2 | +0.5 | -33.3 |
| South 1, 8 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 55% | 22% | 1% | 22% | -27.8 | +46.7 | -4.6 | -14.3 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 18,000 | 15% | 76% | 0% | 8% | -13.8 | +28.7 | -6.4 | -8.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 98% | 0% | 1% | +9.4 | -3.0 | -2.3 | -4.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -1.2 | -0.9 | +3.2 | -1.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Akina Mizuhara | 1% | 99% | 0% | 1% | +8.2 | +0.6 | -5.9 | -2.9 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 0% | +5.0 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -4.0 |