Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/21 Game 1
Shiratori Sho finished 1st (+82.4pt). The game was decided in South 1, 8 honba: Shiratori Sho tsumo 12,000, which moved Shiratori Sho's expected points by +44.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Shiratori Sho tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 27% | 24% | 26% | -12.4 | +20.3 | -3.8 | -4.2 |
| East 2 | Draw | 16% | 41% | 21% | 22% | -0.5 | +6.2 | -3.2 | -2.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 15% | 47% | 19% | 19% | -3.6 | +3.6 | -1.4 | +1.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Draw | 12% | 49% | 19% | 20% | -1.4 | +5.5 | -2.6 | -1.6 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 1,500 from Setokuma Naoki | 12% | 54% | 16% | 18% | -7.4 | +11.1 | -3.6 | -0.1 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Draw | 7% | 66% | 12% | 15% | +1.4 | +2.9 | -4.1 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 67% | 10% | 15% | +27.8 | -10.6 | -8.2 | -9.0 |
| East 3 | Mizuhara Akina ron 5,800 from Sasaki Hisato | 20% | 58% | 9% | 13% | -0.1 | +0.1 | +11.9 | -11.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 3,900 from Shiratori Sho | 21% | 59% | 12% | 8% | +1.6 | -8.6 | -2.6 | +9.6 |
| East 4 | Draw | 23% | 52% | 11% | 13% | -3.9 | -2.6 | +5.1 | +1.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 22% | 49% | 15% | 15% | -2.1 | -4.9 | -30.4 | +37.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Draw | 19% | 40% | 4% | 37% | -2.8 | -3.6 | +2.2 | +4.3 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Draw | 17% | 37% | 5% | 41% | +2.9 | -5.4 | -2.9 | +5.4 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 7,700 from Mizuhara Akina | 18% | 30% | 4% | 48% | -2.2 | -2.0 | -15.3 | +19.6 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Draw | 11% | 22% | 1% | 66% | -2.1 | +4.8 | -0.7 | -1.9 |
| South 1, 6 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 3,000 | 11% | 25% | 1% | 63% | +13.0 | -6.2 | -2.7 | -4.0 |
| South 1, 7 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 7,700 from Sasaki Hisato | 18% | 21% | 1% | 60% | +32.0 | +0.7 | +0.3 | -33.1 |
| South 1, 8 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 12,000 | 53% | 23% | 1% | 23% | -26.3 | +44.7 | -4.5 | -13.9 |
| South 2 | Shiratori Sho tsumo 18,000 | 15% | 76% | 1% | 9% | -13.2 | +29.1 | -6.2 | -9.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 98% | 0% | 1% | +9.0 | -2.8 | -2.1 | -4.2 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -0.9 | -1.3 | +3.0 | -0.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Mizuhara Akina | 1% | 98% | 0% | 1% | +7.5 | +0.7 | -5.9 | -2.4 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | +5.1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -4.4 |