Game · 2019-20 Regular Season

11/21 Game 2

Aiko Hinata finished 1st (+57.8pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Aiko Hinata ron 6,400 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi, which moved Aiko Hinata's expected points by +33.9.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance	Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance	Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance	Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance	Aiko Hinata Expected pt change	Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change	Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change	Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change
East 1	Exhaustive draw	24%	24%	24%	28%	+4.1	-0.7	-1.4	-2.0
East 1, 1 honba	Aiko Hinata ron 5,800 from Saki Kurosawa	28%	25%	22%	25%	+16.9	-16.5	-0.6	+0.2
East 1, 2 honba	Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 5,200	41%	14%	21%	23%	-6.3	-5.4	-4.1	+15.8
East 2	Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,100	34%	12%	18%	36%	-3.5	+5.7	-1.8	-0.4
East 2, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	32%	15%	18%	36%	-1.1	-4.2	-3.1	+8.4
East 3, 2 honba	Exhaustive draw	30%	11%	16%	43%	+3.7	+3.7	-4.7	-2.7
East 4, 3 honba	Aiko Hinata tsumo 2,000	34%	12%	13%	41%	+15.8	-4.3	-3.4	-8.1
South 1	Exhaustive draw	50%	9%	10%	30%	+8.2	-1.6	-3.9	-2.7
South 1, 1 honba	Aiko Hinata tsumo 7,800	59%	8%	8%	25%	+18.4	-6.1	-3.8	-8.5
South 1, 2 honba	Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 2,000 from Saki Kurosawa	79%	4%	5%	13%	+0.2	-6.9	0.0	+6.7
South 2	Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata	81%	2%	3%	13%	-35.7	-3.3	-0.6	+39.7
South 3	Exhaustive draw	26%	0%	4%	70%	-2.2	+4.0	-0.2	-1.6
South 3, 1 honba	Aiko Hinata ron 6,400 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi	25%	1%	5%	69%	+33.9	-3.8	-3.0	-27.2
South 4	Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000	83%	0%	0%	17%	+5.0	-8.9	+15.2	-11.3

All 2019-20 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)