Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/26 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+102.1pt). The game was decided in East 1: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 16,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +43.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Ishibashi Nobuhiro 1st-place chance | Wakutsu Akira 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Ishibashi Nobuhiro Expected pt change | Wakutsu Akira Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 16,000 | 28% | 23% | 24% | 25% | -24.4 | -5.5 | -13.4 | +43.4 |
| East 2 | Draw | 9% | 17% | 13% | 62% | -1.8 | -0.2 | +0.5 | +1.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,600 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 8% | 15% | 14% | 63% | +0.5 | -10.0 | -1.1 | +10.6 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 8% | 11% | 75% | +21.7 | -6.7 | -13.2 | -1.8 |
| East 4 | Draw | 13% | 7% | 5% | 75% | +3.6 | -3.4 | -3.6 | +3.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 7,800 | 13% | 5% | 4% | 78% | -5.1 | -4.1 | -2.6 | +11.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 6,000 | 7% | 3% | 3% | 88% | -5.3 | -3.1 | -3.0 | +11.4 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Draw | 3% | 1% | 1% | 95% | -1.2 | +0.6 | -1.3 | +2.0 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 6,000 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 95% | -3.4 | -3.7 | -2.7 | +9.8 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 7,800 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 98% | -2.6 | -4.7 | -2.7 | +10.0 |
| East 4, 6 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 5,200 from Setokuma Naoki | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | +12.2 | -3.5 | -0.9 | -7.8 |
| South 1 | Draw | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | +2.4 | -2.3 | +1.4 | -1.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | +3.3 | -1.1 | -3.4 | +1.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 1,000 from Wakutsu Akira | 1% | 0% | 0% | 98% | -1.7 | +4.4 | -4.3 | +1.6 |
| South 2 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +11.4 | -8.0 | -1.0 | -2.4 |
| South 3 | Ishibashi Nobuhiro tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 99% | -2.8 | +22.7 | -17.4 | -2.5 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Wakutsu Akira | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +0.2 | +0.5 | -12.8 | +12.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 3,900 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +4.5 | -4.1 | +0.7 | -1.0 |