Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/26 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+102.1pt). The game was decided in East 1: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 16,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +41.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Akira Wakutsu 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Akira Wakutsu Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 16,000 | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -20.2 | -10.6 | -11.0 | +41.8 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 16% | 15% | 60% | -3.8 | +1.6 | -0.4 | +2.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,600 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 8% | 16% | 14% | 62% | -0.2 | -11.3 | 0.0 | +11.6 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 8% | 11% | 75% | +21.4 | -6.4 | -13.8 | -1.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 6% | 6% | 75% | +4.7 | -4.2 | -2.0 | +1.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 7,800 | 15% | 4% | 5% | 76% | -6.7 | -2.3 | -4.7 | +13.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 6,000 | 7% | 2% | 2% | 89% | -5.2 | -3.7 | -1.4 | +10.3 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 1% | 1% | 94% | -0.2 | -0.5 | -2.6 | +3.4 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 6,000 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 96% | -5.0 | -2.0 | -1.0 | +7.9 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 7,800 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 98% | -1.6 | -4.0 | -5.6 | +11.2 |
| East 4, 6 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +11.3 | -3.3 | -0.1 | -8.0 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | +2.5 | -3.0 | +2.2 | -1.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | +3.6 | -1.6 | -3.3 | +1.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 1,000 from Akira Wakutsu | 1% | 0% | 0% | 98% | -1.0 | +3.2 | -3.3 | +1.1 |
| South 2 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +11.2 | -6.7 | -2.7 | -1.8 |
| South 3 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -3.0 | +22.8 | -17.4 | -2.5 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Akira Wakutsu | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +0.5 | 0.0 | -12.3 | +11.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 3,900 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +4.4 | -4.0 | +0.6 | -1.0 |