Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
11/28 Game 1
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+49.6pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +34.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 1,600 from Sayaka Kayamori | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -6.7 | -0.3 | +5.6 | +1.4 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 25% | 28% | 27% | -4.4 | +4.5 | +3.1 | -3.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 28% | 29% | 25% | -9.2 | +34.8 | -10.5 | -15.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 3,200 from Sho Shiratori | 11% | 57% | 19% | 13% | -0.7 | -12.2 | +14.1 | -1.2 |
| East 3 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 3,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 11% | 45% | 30% | 14% | -8.2 | -0.5 | +10.3 | -1.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 8% | 43% | 37% | 12% | +3.4 | +3.7 | -9.1 | +2.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 49% | 28% | 14% | -0.4 | -1.3 | -2.2 | +3.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 9,600 | 9% | 47% | 28% | 15% | -8.8 | -9.3 | -9.9 | +28.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 7% | 39% | 22% | 33% | -2.1 | -3.9 | +43.9 | -37.9 |
| South 1 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 4% | 26% | 63% | 7% | -2.4 | -0.9 | +12.0 | -8.7 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 1% | 18% | 79% | 3% | -5.8 | +3.4 | -15.8 | +18.3 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 0% | 29% | 62% | 9% | -2.9 | +14.6 | -33.9 | +22.2 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Makoto Sawazaki | 0% | 60% | 16% | 24% | +0.4 | -7.1 | -16.4 | +23.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 42% | 8% | 50% | +6.6 | +23.8 | -7.2 | -23.2 |