Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/3 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+61.3pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +32.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaharu Ooi ron 3,900 from Taro Suzuki | 25% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -14.4 | +14.7 | +1.2 | -1.4 |
| East 2 | Takaharu Ooi ron 5,800 from Taro Suzuki | 16% | 35% | 24% | 25% | -15.1 | +15.8 | -0.8 | +0.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 47% | 22% | 22% | -7.0 | -18.9 | +32.9 | -7.1 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,800 from Takaharu Ooi | 5% | 28% | 49% | 17% | -0.6 | -15.9 | +17.1 | -0.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 4% | 15% | 68% | 14% | 0.0 | -20.1 | -0.1 | +20.2 |
| East 4 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 5,200 | 3% | 6% | 68% | 23% | +10.8 | -4.2 | +0.1 | -6.6 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,600 from Takaharu Ooi | 6% | 5% | 71% | 18% | -2.2 | -7.4 | +3.1 | +6.5 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 3% | 75% | 20% | +1.9 | +2.1 | +3.2 | -7.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 4% | 80% | 15% | -1.7 | +4.7 | -1.6 | -1.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,300 from Taro Suzuki | 2% | 5% | 79% | 15% | -7.1 | -3.8 | +1.8 | +9.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 0% | 83% | 16% | +4.5 | -6.4 | -1.5 | +3.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 0% | 0% | 85% | 15% | -21.7 | +22.0 | +6.9 | -7.2 |