Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/3 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+61.3pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +33.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ooi Takaharu ron 3,900 from Suzuki Taro | 24% | 23% | 25% | 27% | -13.5 | +13.2 | +1.5 | -1.2 |
| East 2 | Ooi Takaharu ron 5,800 from Suzuki Taro | 16% | 34% | 25% | 25% | -17.1 | +19.0 | -1.2 | -0.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 8% | 48% | 21% | 23% | -6.0 | -20.5 | +33.0 | -6.6 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,800 from Ooi Takaharu | 5% | 27% | 50% | 18% | +1.1 | -17.0 | +15.9 | -0.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 5% | 14% | 67% | 15% | -1.5 | -18.8 | +0.2 | +20.1 |
| East 4 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 5,200 | 3% | 6% | 66% | 25% | +11.8 | -3.8 | +0.4 | -8.4 |
| South 1 | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,600 from Ooi Takaharu | 6% | 6% | 70% | 18% | -3.4 | -7.7 | +3.2 | +7.8 |
| South 2 | Draw | 2% | 3% | 75% | 20% | +1.5 | +2.4 | +2.7 | -6.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 2% | 3% | 79% | 15% | -2.4 | +5.2 | -1.0 | -1.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 1,300 from Suzuki Taro | 2% | 4% | 78% | 16% | -5.2 | -5.0 | +2.4 | +7.8 |
| South 3 | Draw | 1% | 0% | 83% | 16% | +3.8 | -5.7 | -2.1 | +4.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 8,000 from Suzuki Taro | 0% | 0% | 84% | 16% | -21.8 | +22.0 | +7.0 | -7.3 |