Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/6 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+64.7pt). The game was decided in South 1: Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +27.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | +7.5 | -2.8 | -1.3 | -3.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 23% | 24% | 24% | +0.1 | +2.7 | -7.2 | +4.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 2,700 | 30% | 23% | 20% | 27% | -8.7 | +14.7 | -3.4 | -2.6 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,300 from Mari Takamiya | 24% | 34% | 18% | 25% | +3.9 | -1.0 | -3.5 | +0.6 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 26% | 32% | 17% | 25% | +23.6 | -21.6 | -4.6 | +2.6 |
| East 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 5,800 from Mari Takamiya | 45% | 17% | 11% | 26% | -2.1 | +1.2 | -13.5 | +14.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 3,200 from Mari Takamiya | 41% | 17% | 7% | 35% | +12.2 | -2.1 | -6.7 | -3.4 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 55% | 12% | 4% | 29% | +27.1 | -11.1 | -5.5 | -10.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 84% | 4% | 1% | 10% | -1.5 | -1.4 | -2.5 | +5.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 83% | 4% | 1% | 11% | +0.2 | -15.7 | +19.1 | -3.6 |
| South 3 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya | 89% | 0% | 3% | 9% | +2.2 | +3.4 | -9.5 | +3.9 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 3,000 | 93% | 0% | 0% | 7% | -1.9 | -0.8 | -2.8 | +5.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 7,800 | 90% | 0% | 0% | 10% | -8.4 | -2.8 | -3.1 | +14.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 76% | 0% | 0% | 24% | +11.0 | +7.5 | -6.6 | -11.9 |