Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/6 Game 2
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+60.6pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +32.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 6,000 | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | +15.0 | -5.0 | -6.1 | -3.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 36% | 22% | 20% | 22% | +5.8 | -0.7 | -1.6 | -3.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 41% | 20% | 20% | 19% | -1.4 | +11.2 | -9.2 | -0.5 |
| East 2 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 7,800 | 39% | 27% | 15% | 19% | -8.0 | +21.5 | -5.1 | -8.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 30% | 44% | 13% | 14% | +4.6 | -4.7 | -2.2 | +2.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 1,500 | 34% | 40% | 12% | 14% | -2.5 | -2.4 | +9.1 | -4.2 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Draw | 33% | 38% | 15% | 13% | -2.4 | -0.8 | +6.5 | -3.3 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 32% | 38% | 18% | 12% | -4.0 | +23.7 | -16.9 | -2.8 |
| East 4 | Draw | 23% | 62% | 7% | 8% | +8.6 | -1.3 | -2.3 | -5.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 60% | 6% | 5% | +32.4 | -17.1 | -7.3 | -8.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 65% | 29% | 4% | 3% | +4.6 | -22.9 | -4.2 | +22.5 |
| South 2 | Draw | 78% | 12% | 3% | 8% | -1.6 | +4.7 | -0.5 | -2.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 76% | 15% | 3% | 6% | +2.8 | -3.8 | -6.4 | +7.4 |
| South 3 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 1,100 | 83% | 8% | 2% | 7% | +5.7 | +1.4 | -6.5 | -0.6 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 92% | 2% | 0% | 6% | +0.4 | +1.1 | +31.9 | -33.3 |