Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/6 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+60.6pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +31.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,000 | 25% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +16.3 | -4.6 | -5.8 | -5.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 24% | 20% | 20% | +5.9 | -4.1 | -0.2 | -1.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 41% | 19% | 20% | 20% | -1.1 | +11.6 | -9.7 | -0.8 |
| East 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 7,800 | 40% | 26% | 15% | 19% | -8.5 | +22.6 | -6.4 | -7.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 43% | 12% | 14% | +4.2 | -3.5 | -2.1 | +1.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 1,500 | 35% | 40% | 11% | 15% | -2.6 | -2.2 | +10.0 | -5.2 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 39% | 15% | 13% | -1.7 | -1.6 | +4.8 | -1.5 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 32% | 38% | 17% | 13% | -5.4 | +21.9 | -14.5 | -2.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 61% | 8% | 10% | +11.0 | -0.9 | -2.2 | -7.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 30% | 58% | 7% | 5% | +31.1 | -15.7 | -8.7 | -6.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 65% | 30% | 3% | 3% | +4.5 | -24.6 | -3.0 | +23.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 78% | 12% | 3% | 7% | -1.9 | +6.4 | -1.7 | -2.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 74% | 16% | 3% | 7% | +4.4 | -4.6 | -5.4 | +5.7 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 1,100 | 84% | 7% | 2% | 6% | +4.9 | +1.4 | -6.6 | +0.3 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 92% | 2% | 0% | 6% | +0.3 | +1.2 | +31.8 | -33.3 |