Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/8 Game 1
Satoshi Fujisaki finished 1st (+68.0pt). The game was decided in South 3: Satoshi Fujisaki tsumo 18,000, which moved Satoshi Fujisaki's expected points by +44.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Satoshi Fujisaki 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Satoshi Fujisaki Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Satoshi Fujisaki ron 3,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +0.8 | -2.4 | +10.7 | -9.1 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 6,000 | 24% | 24% | 32% | 20% | -7.4 | +18.7 | -4.5 | -6.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 39% | 28% | 15% | +3.7 | -11.9 | +2.3 | +5.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 28% | 30% | 20% | +0.4 | +1.4 | -5.4 | +3.6 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 1,100 | 23% | 30% | 26% | 21% | +8.3 | -1.6 | 0.0 | -6.7 |
| South 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 24,000 | 28% | 30% | 25% | 16% | +62.6 | -26.3 | -21.2 | -15.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Satoshi Fujisaki tsumo 8,000 | 90% | 4% | 4% | 3% | -6.7 | -5.9 | +21.4 | -8.8 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 86% | 4% | 9% | 2% | +1.6 | -24.0 | +1.6 | +20.7 |
| South 3 | Satoshi Fujisaki tsumo 18,000 | 89% | 0% | 8% | 4% | -27.4 | -6.4 | +44.5 | -10.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 1,100 | 37% | 0% | 61% | 2% | -5.2 | -2.1 | +2.7 | +4.5 |
| South 4 | Satoshi Fujisaki tsumo 4,000 | 26% | 0% | 72% | 2% | -10.8 | -1.3 | +16.2 | -4.1 |