Game · 2019-20 Regular Season
12/8 Game 2
Satoshi Fujisaki finished 1st (+58.9pt). The game was decided in South 4: Satoshi Fujisaki ron 2,600 from Naoki Setokuma, which moved Satoshi Fujisaki's expected points by +28.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Satoshi Fujisaki 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Satoshi Fujisaki Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Satoshi Fujisaki tsumo 8,000 | 28% | 24% | 24% | 24% | -16.0 | -3.6 | +22.3 | -2.7 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 22% | 41% | 22% | -3.1 | +2.2 | -3.3 | +4.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Satoshi Fujisaki tsumo 4,000 | 15% | 22% | 38% | 25% | -1.0 | -7.1 | +11.5 | -3.3 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 18% | 48% | 22% | -2.9 | -4.4 | +8.4 | -1.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Satoshi Fujisaki tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 14% | 57% | 19% | -7.4 | -7.9 | +25.3 | -10.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 6% | 81% | 9% | +5.1 | +1.9 | -2.3 | -4.8 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 6% | 81% | 7% | -13.1 | -9.2 | -11.2 | +33.4 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 6% | 66% | 24% | -3.6 | -4.3 | +3.9 | +4.1 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 3% | 71% | 24% | +10.9 | -3.9 | +0.1 | -7.2 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 4% | 3% | 74% | 18% | -21.4 | +17.3 | +2.4 | +1.8 |
| South 2 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 8,000 from Satoshi Fujisaki | 0% | 5% | 78% | 17% | -1.5 | -3.7 | -23.0 | +28.1 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 1% | 41% | 57% | -3.3 | +8.0 | -3.1 | -1.7 |
| South 4 | Satoshi Fujisaki ron 2,600 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 2% | 40% | 58% | -0.2 | -4.2 | +28.8 | -24.4 |